#1
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JJ - flop all-in call
I had a meaningless preflop stats read, nothing else against this guy. FWIW, he bought in for $50. I reasoned that my heart outs are good 50% of the time against a higher PP, and he could be donking it with AK-AQ, and so I called. FU Party poker for not having a timebank.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font> <font color="#C00000">BB ($60)</font> UTG ($149.65) UTG+1 ($104.90) <font color="#C00000">MP1 ($119)</font> MP2 ($99.15) MP3 ($98.80) <font color="#C00000">Hero ($189.60)</font> Button ($105.40) SB ($120.58) Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $9</font>, MP1 calls $6, Hero calls $6. Flop: ($30.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> BB bets $35, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $50</font>, BB calls $15 (all-in). |
#2
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Re: JJ - flop all-in call
Call and spike the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is my preferred play here.
What's with the $15 raise? Just put him all-in [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Am I missing something? |
#3
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Re: JJ - flop all-in call
I'm pretty sure he has AA/KK here. However, if he has no [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (50%) you are looking ok with 14 outs. If he does have [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] though you are sitting on 6 outs. I guess if you think he has AK/AQ sometimes it might be ok, but I don't think he's even bothering to bet this flop without either A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or a pair, so I would just lay down.
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#4
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Re: JJ - flop all-in call
I don't think you're ahead here very often, but as long as he's not holding a larger [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you have a pretty nice draw. Why no reraise pf?
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#5
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Re: JJ - flop all-in call
I think it's most likely a coin-flip at best or your dominated at worst. If your two assumptions are valid (ie your [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is good 50% of the time and he will make this play with hands like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] some non trivial percent of the time) it's very close IMO.
Considering only overpair with heart / no heart it's slightly worse than a coin flip if the distribution is 50/50: 15,107,211 games 16.056 secs 940,907 games/sec Board: Th 8h 7h Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 48.5234 % 48.22% 00.30% { AcAd } Hand 2: 51.4766 % 51.17% 00.30% { JdJh } --- 16,534,511 games 17.106 secs 966,591 games/sec Board: Th 8h 7h Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 79.0963 % 78.79% 00.30% { AdAh } Hand 2: 20.9037 % 20.60% 00.30% { JdJh } --- You're average equity is 36% or needing approx 2.78:1 to push. If your FE is zero (which it likely is), you're getting 130:50 to push approx 2.6:1, so you're not quite there. Now if we consider he makes this with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] even 10% of the time you're now breaking even: 10,930,720 games 12.437 secs 878,887 games/sec Board: Th 8h 7h Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 43.8152 % 43.51% 00.30% { AhKc } Hand 2: 56.1848 % 55.88% 00.30% { JdJh } Equity = .45(case 1) + .45(case2) + .1(case3) = .45(51.5) + .45(20.5) + .1(55.9) = 23.175 + 9.225 + 5.59 = 37.99 or approx 2.63:1 to push. So if he does this 10% of the time with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] you're now at zero sum EV. I probably call this in the heat of the moment but it's very close, and much depends upon if your [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] really is good 50% of the time and he's willing to do this without an overpair. If he's got both you're in bad shape. |
#6
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Re: JJ - flop all-in call
[ QUOTE ]
Call and spike the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is my preferred play here. What's with the $15 raise? Just put him all-in [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Am I missing something? [/ QUOTE ] He only has 15 left. |
#7
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Re: JJ - flop all-in call
just a question for you guys - do you attempt to make estimates at these odds equations in your head during the hand?
i know it isnt so hard to sit down and think about it, but youve got a hot 20 seconds max to act. |
#8
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Re: JJ - flop all-in call
[ QUOTE ]
Flop: ($30.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> BB bets $35, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $50</font>, BB calls $15 (all-in). [/ QUOTE ] I think the fact that BB overbet makes it very very easy for him to have AA no heart. I'm calling with 14 outs and dead money. |
#9
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Re: JJ - flop all-in call
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Call and spike the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is my preferred play here. What's with the $15 raise? Just put him all-in [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Am I missing something? [/ QUOTE ] He only has 15 left. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] |
#10
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Re: JJ - flop all-in call
Mostly it's the 4 on the flop / 2 on the turn rule for counting outs. Perhaps Rainman could do this PokerStove during a hand. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
Main decision here is how often the heart outs are good. If they're good half the time, this is a toss up. Add that to the chance he's donking with overs + one heart and you can talk yourself into a call. |
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