3bet fold to a cap?

[Redd]

I think if AQ is possible, then KT is possible; for both of these the turn call seems a little loose for a TAG, although he could put Hero on a draw given the nature of the board.

Why do you say he needs to pay off with a Q a low % of the time? If we ballpark that we're ahead 60% the time here (this is a rough estimate, do you think it's close?), EV of the extra bet going in =40*(-1)+60*x*1, where x is his payoff frequency. This gives us x=67% of the time he'd need to payoff.