Pocket TT

[mojobluesman]

I understand the thinking on the turn, but assuming there is any chance I am ahead, when I check the turn I am inviting a weaker pair to bet the river. Maybe that's not as applicable in this case. However, one of the things I really dislike about giving up the lead is that once you show weakness, the bets come at you in the next round and you have no idea where you are. Usually, I'd rather bet, keep some fold equity and have the option of checking on the river. Because if a bet comes on the river, I usually have to call anyway because I invited it by being weak on the turn.

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
if a bet comes on the river, I usually have to call anyway because I invited it by being weak on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is, in fact, one of the selling points of checking behind on the turn. This is inducing a bluff (or a bet from a weaker hand), which you intend to snap off by calling a river bet.

[mojobluesman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if a bet comes on the river, I usually have to call anyway because I invited it by being weak on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is, in fact, one of the selling points of checking behind on the turn. This is inducing a bluff (or a bet from a weaker hand), which you intend to snap off by calling a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you are saying that giving up any small potential I have to get one or both opponents to fold on the turn by betting is worth waiting to the see the river. Because either way I get one bet in if I am ahead (and maybe 2 if the river is a T).

[tyler_cracker]

No one that you want to fold is folding for 1 bet on the turn after that flop action. The most likely holdings for your opponents are a weak jack (never folding), a flush draw (which you are now behind), a straight draw (which may have just come in and which is never folding), or a lower pocket pair (drawing to 2 outs).

You're behind here a lot, so you can't bet for value. Since no one that you want to fold is going to fold, you can't bet to protect your hand. So you should check and see the river. This has the happy side-effect of dodging a check/raise (to which you would have to fold!) from a draw that just got there.

Once you "show weakness" by checking, some weaker hands might bet for you, or a stronger hand might bet. Either way, it costs you the same 1 BB to call the river as it would to bet the turn, plus you get to see a showdown, plus you win an extra bet from a lower PP that would have folded the turn but has now bet out because you are "weak".

Does that help?

[mojobluesman]

[ QUOTE ]
Does that help?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes and no.

I was afraid of the turn card, but I still didn't know if I was ahead or behind. For all I knew UTG was drawing to an inside STR8 (AXs) but the turn didn't help him and MP1 could have had a good pocket pair but weaker than mine (not a weak J)

We are both conceding that it's possible I am still ahead and that I'm going to call the river if I don't bet the turn. (cost 1 bet)

If I bet and get check raised the hand is over. (cost 1 bet)

So I still don't see the downside of betting the turn and perhaps getting UTG to fold an inside STR8 draw or weaker pair. Every scenario is one bet, but this one has some small potential upside of a fold (however small).

I guess what it really comes down to is what probability I assign myself for being ahead because if's it's better than 1/3, then betting and getting 2 calls or betting and potentially getting a fold are both fine.

If I think I am almost certainly behind, then checking and folding saves a bet.

If I think I am probably behind and the river is dangerous, then checking and folding saves a bet.

[Pedigree]

[ QUOTE ]

I was afraid of the turn card, but I still didn't know if I was ahead or behind. For all I knew UTG was drawing to an inside STR8 (AXs) but the turn didn't help him and MP1 could have had a good pocket pair but weaker than mine (not a weak J)

[/ QUOTE ]

In either case giving a free card isn't a total disaster. That's a total of 5 potential outs against you worst case scenario. It's worth it to avoid a check raise from a completed draw or just wasting a bet against a Jack.

[ QUOTE ]

We are both conceding that it's possible I am still ahead and that I'm going to call the river if I don't bet the turn. (cost 1 bet)

If I bet and get check raised the hand is over. (cost 1 bet)

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]it is? You're not calling to hit your flush?

[ QUOTE ]

So I still don't see the downside of betting the turn and perhaps getting UTG to fold an inside STR8 draw or weaker pair. Every scenario is one bet, but this one has some small potential upside of a fold (however small).

[/ QUOTE ]

This would be true without the flush draw. Either HPFAP or SSHE talks about checking behind on the turn with a lot of outs and a hand that might be good and betting on the turn with a hand that might be good with a few outs.

[ QUOTE ]

I guess what it really comes down to is what probability I assign myself for being ahead because if's it's better than 1/3, then betting and getting 2 calls or betting and potentially getting a fold are both fine.

If I think I am almost certainly behind, then checking and folding saves a bet.

If I think I am probably behind and the river is dangerous, then checking and folding saves a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there's very little chance you are ahead at this point in the hand.

[mojobluesman]

[quote}I think there's very little chance you are ahead at this point in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you are pretty much arguing for check and fold because even if I get my flush, it's probably not good assuming UTG is on a draw. I can't assume he might have me beat on the turn and then get all fuzzy about making my T high flush on the river when a 4th Club hits.

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
I was afraid of the turn card, but I still didn't know if I was ahead or behind. For all I knew UTG was drawing to an inside STR8 (AXs) but the turn didn't help him and MP1 could have had a good pocket pair but weaker than mine (not a weak J)

[/ QUOTE ]

This could be what's happening, but this is a pretty lucky parlay for you if so. It's more likely that you're behind and/or that no one is folding anyway (as i described above).

[ QUOTE ]

We are both conceding that it's possible I am still ahead and that I'm going to call the river if I don't bet the turn. (cost 1 bet)

If I bet and get check raised the hand is over. (cost 1 bet)


[/ QUOTE ]

All other things being equal, i would rather spend 1 bet to get to showdown than 1 bet to fold to an unknown's turn check/raise.

[ QUOTE ]

So I still don't see the downside of betting the turn and perhaps getting UTG to fold an inside STR8 draw or weaker pair. Every scenario is one bet, but this one has some small potential upside of a fold (however small).


[/ QUOTE ]

UTG isn't folding for 1 bet on the turn after calling two cold on the flop.

I don't think you have much fold equity, and i really doubt you're getting both villains to fold here. For this and all the other reasons i've mentioned, i think the check turn/call river line is better.

I also think this decision is close, and i have laid out my arguments and you don't have to agree with me and neither one of us should lose much sleep either way.