AK UTG (super Tuesday)

[greenroom1]

I agree that AA/KK is unlikely here but it is still about a 10% chance (1/220 X 10 X 2). I think only a really weak player would raise with AQs/AQ/AJs against a healthy EP raise. So it is about an 80% chance that I facing QQ or less. I guess races are part of the game, but I would prefer to get all my chip in the middle with an edge and I would rather have the pair in that situation.

The problem that I am having is that the money paid in the tourney seemed to improve quite a bit through the later stages. This is what I remember of the payout. So I figured calling was a coin flip for either breaking even or doubling up. I like finishing deep in the tourneys, but sometimes I think about being patient and waiting to finish deeper in the money. I called the bet and lost to pocket 10s.

120-101 - $162
100-81 - $220
80-61 - $340
60-41 - $450
40-31 - $550

[greenroom1]

Is my math correct for facing AA/KK when making a bet from UTG.

Odds of AA 1/220/hand
Odds of KK 1/220/hand

9 players

1/220 X 9 X 2 = 8 %


Pocket pairs occur 1/16 hands

Odds in facing one pair are 9/16 = 56%
Odds in facing PP QQs or less = 56%-8% = 48%

so when I make a raise from UTG there is a 56% a PP is out there. Using the same math there is a 28% chance that there will be two PP.

With the money scal as shown should I have limped in EP calling a modest raise. This seems passive, but I learning that AK is a difficult hand to play out of position.

[nath]

My math says your pot odds are about 1.65 to 1 so this is a pretty easy call-- you need to be slightly less than 38% to make this a break-even play and you are probably better than that:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

678,072,384 games 1.000 secs 678,072,384 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.3923 % 27.16% 13.23% { AKo }
Hand 2: 59.6077 % 46.38% 13.23% { TT+, AKs, AKo }

even easier:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,047,930,048 games 1.484 secs 706,152,323 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.6516 % 39.52% 09.13% { AKo }
Hand 2: 51.3484 % 42.22% 09.13% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }


Limp-calling AK with these stack sizes is a terrible idea. Raise to try to take it down; if you are called or raised, play some poker. If you limp, it should be with the intent to limp-reraise all-in.

Yea I would've called this as well. In fact I did make this call a while back in a $50 multi where we were just out ofthe money. This player made back to back all ins utg and utg+1. I was bb when he was utg+1 and called him with ak. He had 10s, I didn't improve and I was out. I was do it again if I had ti do it all over again.

[Dave D]

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I agree that AA/KK is unlikely here but it is still about a 10% chance (1/220 X 10 X 2).


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There's a 10% chance you'll get hit by a car or something tommorow. Doesn't mean you don't cross the street. You cant play AK scared of AA/KK.

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I think only a really weak player would raise with AQs/AQ/AJs against a healthy EP raise.


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Umm, nope, not on party, not even in higher buy in tourneys. There's donks everywhere, even once you're in the money, and even towards the end. Once you're reasonably far in the money it's interesting how sometimes people just crack and do stupid things. Maybe the pressure gets to them, or they're tired, or they get too fancy. Regardless, wierd things can happen late in a tourney, even weirder than earlier parts.

Incidently, think about how badly villian played this hand in this situation. If he has AA/KK/QQ/AK why in the WORLD would you push back against a shorter stack? The only thing that calls you is something that beats you (probably), and most of the time people will fold w/o those 4 hands. So villian loses his chance to win lots of chips with a premium hand like basically 90% of the time here. It's awful. What if villian has a mid pair, that's even worse. Anyone with half a braincell is going to think "hmm, EP raise, he probably has a group 1", pushing means that you're probably gonna get called, and you're hoping for a coinflip at best. The best play here would be to just call. Short story is, people are dumb.

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So it is about an 80% chance that I facing QQ or less. I guess races are part of the game, but I would prefer to get all my chip in the middle with an edge and I would rather have the pair in that situation.


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That's weak tight thinking. Villian could easily have AQ, AJ, KQ, or who knows what. This kind of raise implies that he's trying to steal or something. You DESTROY so much of his range, you can't be thinking about not wanting to race b/c there's soooo many other hands that you destroy here.

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The problem that I am having is that the money paid in the tourney seemed to improve quite a bit through the later stages.



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This is exactly why you have to call. You need chips to get to the late stages. These tourneys have quickly escalating blind structures, which means you really have to take every possible EV+ situation you can get.

[JohnG]

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The best play here would be to just call.

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Not on the stated ratios.

[Dave D]

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The best play here would be to just call.

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Not on the stated ratios.

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If you're saying hero should fold, that's awful, and awful weak tight. Especially because we have no reads on villian. This is an easy call without thinking twice.

Wait wait don't tell me, AK is a "drawing hand" right?

[JohnG]

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If you're saying hero should fold, that's awful, and awful weak tight. Especially because we have no reads on villian. This is an easy call without thinking twice.

Wait wait don't tell me, AK is a "drawing hand" right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea what you are talking about.

I was replying to this passage:

[ QUOTE ]
Incidently, think about how badly villian played this hand in this situation. If he has AA/KK/QQ/AK why in the WORLD would you push back against a shorter stack? The only thing that calls you is something that beats you (probably), and most of the time people will fold w/o those 4 hands. So villian loses his chance to win lots of chips with a premium hand like basically 90% of the time here. It's awful. What if villian has a mid pair, that's even worse. Anyone with half a braincell is going to think "hmm, EP raise, he probably has a group 1", pushing means that you're probably gonna get called, and you're hoping for a coinflip at best. The best play here would be to just call. Short story is, people are dumb.

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I took that to mean you thought the villains best play was to just call the UTG raise, which is what my reply addressed.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're saying hero should fold, that's awful, and awful weak tight. Especially because we have no reads on villian. This is an easy call without thinking twice.

Wait wait don't tell me, AK is a "drawing hand" right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea what you are talking about.

I was replying to this passage:

[ QUOTE ]
Incidently, think about how badly villian played this hand in this situation. If he has AA/KK/QQ/AK why in the WORLD would you push back against a shorter stack? The only thing that calls you is something that beats you (probably), and most of the time people will fold w/o those 4 hands. So villian loses his chance to win lots of chips with a premium hand like basically 90% of the time here. It's awful. What if villian has a mid pair, that's even worse. Anyone with half a braincell is going to think "hmm, EP raise, he probably has a group 1", pushing means that you're probably gonna get called, and you're hoping for a coinflip at best. The best play here would be to just call. Short story is, people are dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

I took that to mean you thought the villains best play was to just call the UTG raise, which is what my reply addressed.

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Ok yeah, i wasn't 100% sure what you meant, I couldn't find what you were quoting exactly. I'm not sure what you mean by ratios tho.

Now that we know villian had 10s things are a little different. The more I think about it, the more I like his play here, but *only* with tens. I would have just called with 9s (or maybe folded, its close), and I think I would have pushed back with Jacks. I call with Queens and up. The reason is, I want deception value, and I think I can extract more. Pushing back with a premium hand is just too likely to get a fold, and I'd rather slow down and try to make sure I can get him to commit a large part of his stack. And I can afford to do this with QQ, KK, AA, I'm not that worried about getting drawn out on heads up.

[JohnG]

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Ok yeah, i wasn't 100% sure what you meant, I couldn't find what you were quoting exactly. I'm not sure what you mean by ratios tho.

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The ratios are the stack sizes in relation to the bet size. In this case, hero had 8730 and raised to 1800, and villain had 11230. I don't think the villain calling 1800 is a good idea given those stack sizes.

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I would have just called with 9s (or maybe folded, its close)

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Calling sucks. Too high a price to call and try to hit a set, which means you only play if you think you have the best hand now. If you have the best, (but vulnerable hand in poor position), then calling doesn't make sense given the dead money in the pot in relation to the amount left to be bet. You need to play it committally or not play at all on those ratios.

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Pushing back with a premium hand is just too likely to get a fold,

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Isn't it reasonable to assume an UTG raise may be a strong enough hand to call an allin? Besides, increasing your stack by 20% plus without a fight is a mighty fine result. And that's the worse case scenario when re-raising allin holding a premium hand.

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and I'd rather slow down and try to make sure I can get him to commit a large part of his stack.

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The UTG player has already committed 20% of his stack, and has indicated strength. Seeing the flop may just scare him away when he otherwise would have committed it all preflop had you moved in. I know if I were in the UTGs shoes, I'd suspect a trap if the player calling a raise that size did not do so habitually.

I don't see any hand where calling for an amount approx 20% of the stacks in play is generally a good idea. Any hand worth playing is worth a re-raise, and given the ratios, that re-raise would be allin.

I can see just calling the UTG raise for an amount approx 12% of the stacks if holding something like JJ/QQ/AK in this actual spot. Normally, 10% would be my cutoff for just calling, but an exception can be made on borderline amounts here because an allin re-raise would probably not get action from hands that we bury.