Deal or No Deal

[tpir90036]

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The calculator for the online version is screwy. When you're down to three cases left, they almost always make an offer above EV.

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yeah. it's safe to say the online calculator was just made up by some web person who wrote the flash thing.

i wish they would elaborate on what the banker is doing. i think it would be better if we knew he was [censored] with people and not just plugging numbers into something. or if we knew that he knew which case we had.

[moose47]

Is anybody else really hoping she just picked the million?

dude this guy sucks, picking the 750k and 1 million cases early are very bad strategy.

[lastchance]

Heh, yeah.

The early bets seem huge -EV though. They're offering you like 10% of total prize pool. You should be able to wait for a 50-70% of prize pool package.

I'm probably going for about 80%/50+k.

I'd love to play this game, obviously since the initial ev is like 130k, but also because it's such a no brainer to gambol. Gotta love a game where the by far superior strategy is to just go for it.

[moose47]

Well, we found out that with 1 million and a small amount left the offer is 500k. I was hoping they would make it lower. I don't see anyone passing that up.

[moose47]

I think this guy is leaving with $5

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

This guy needed to take the loss of 3,000 in EV it sounds like, but I guess it worked out for him.

[lastchance]

Going for it here is terrible. Marginal utility of 500k 100% of the time > 1 million half of the time.

$3k dollars in terms of EV here is a very easy price to pay.

I wonder if the game show wants people to go for it instead of playing it safe.

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

Wow...Poker player makes sense and then guy decides to do the opposite. GENIUS!