#1
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10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
Can someone who's good with statistical analysis look at this? In my observed hands database, I came across this player who's getting crushed after 11500 hands....yet his W$SD is an amazing 58.29!!
I realize his WtSD is a little low, but how is this possible?? If you need more of his statistics, let me know. |
#2
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Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
He this could be me [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
I dunno, but I guess he's losing alot of big pots. |
#3
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Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
He's folding way too much. WtSD only 31.6. Accounts for the higher W$SD and the losses.
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#4
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Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
I also believe his PFR is a tad low along with blind steal.
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#5
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Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
variance / selection bias
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#6
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Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
I would be surprised if this guy is a long term loser as his stats don't appear to be too far off. I imagine he's not a happy bunny at present though.
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#7
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Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
[ QUOTE ]
He's folding way too much. WtSD only 31.6. Accounts for the higher W$SD and the losses. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks Rob, After you said this, I looked at his folded to river bet and saw 47.6%! I am still surprised by the logic inconsistencies....and wondering how it's possible for someone reasonable enough to play everything else (VPIP, PFR, Folded SB & BB to steal, ASB, W$WSF) so close to optimally, yet fold THAT many winners on the end. IMO, no one would play that masochistically unless they're trying to lose. |
#8
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Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] He's folding way too much. WtSD only 31.6. Accounts for the higher W$SD and the losses. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks Rob, After you said this, I looked at his folded to river bet and saw 47.6%! I am still surprised by the logic inconsistencies....and wondering how it's possible for someone reasonable enough to play everything else (VPIP, PFR, Folded SB & BB to steal, ASB, W$WSF) so close to optimally, yet fold THAT many winners on the end. IMO, no one would play that masochistically unless they're trying to lose. [/ QUOTE ] These are almost precisely my stats, though my BB/100 is on the plus side. I fold too often. I'm working on seeing more showdowns, but I have a hard time seeing the showdown when I get check/raised on the turn when I've got AJ that missed. I'm trying to play cheap (1/2, 2/4) HU sessions to get more familiarity with playing missed/weak hands. I'm guessing this player is normally a .5BB/100 type winner an he's having a bad run. Last night, first 3 hands I flopped trips, trips, nut straight, only to lose each time to a runner/runner. Those 3 hands put me nearly 20BB hole right off the bat. When you're a .5BB/100 winner, a sequence like that can put you in the hole for a loooonnnnggggg time. Variance sucks. |
#9
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Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
Is your W$SD normally in the very high 50s when running bad and in the mid 60s when running good?
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#10
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Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
If you are having a hard time seeing the showdown when you get check-raised on the turn with your AJ that missed, then stop betting the turn with your AJ that missed if you might get check-raised.
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