Strong hand facing river overbet

ok so he has the flush made here..

and you're telling me that you're folding here just because last time he took the lead and he had it, and hes decided to do the same exact move that you're gonna fold this hand here 70% of the time? that doesnt sound right to me.

[soah]

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I think 30% air, 60% flush, 10% some other hand, which you are ahead of 50/50

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If that's the case, it's interesting you advised a fold

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Why? You need to be right more than 50% of the time to make this call. From those percentages you are right 1/3.

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Wow. Back to math class.

[aggie]

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I think 30% air, 60% flush, 10% some other hand, which you are ahead of 50/50

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If that's the case, it's interesting you advised a fold

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Why? You need to be right more than 50% of the time to make this call. From those percentages you are right 1/3.

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Wow. Back to math class.

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for those interseted:

The pot is $298 and it's 160 to call...We're getting 1.862-1 to call
If we're ahead 35% of the time (according to ahnuld), that means we're 13-7 dogs and we need to be getting 1.857-1 to call. Which we are!

Seems to be a call by the narrowest of margins.

[ahnuld]

Sure. That math looks about right. I dont mind a call because of the odds, but I dont think you win much more than 30%. Thats why its a close call and this thread was split. I wasnt really being contradictory, just a little lazy

[Wayfare]

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I think 30% air, 60% flush, 10% some other hand, which you are ahead of 50/50

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If that's the case, it's interesting you advised a fold

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Why? You need to be right more than 50% of the time to make this call. From those percentages you are right 1/3.

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Its very scary to me that someone who would make that kind of mistake posts frequently here giving advice on poker.