How low would you go...

Piers · #1 12-19-2005, 09:22 PM

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the ICM model does not account for position, blind or stack size. All very important in this situation.

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Obviously my ICM calcualtions are an approximation. To improve you could do a look ahead approach; include all possible results for the next hand in the mode. Certainly this would help to quantify the error in the first order ICM approach. Have you done this? My guess would be that the error is small, and the first order ICM approach is accurate enough for practical purposes.

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Short stacks equity in the pot is irrelevant.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Just because the short stack is all in on the next hand, does not mean the short stack will automatically loose the hand.

Dan Mezick · #2 12-19-2005, 10:15 PM

The short stack has about a 90% of being eliminated in the next two orbits; especially since the big stack will attack with almost any reasonable hand.

Piers · #3 12-19-2005, 10:34 PM

My guess would be closer to 85%, but you could be right.

Is your 90% estimate based on anything other than a blind guess?