#11
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Odds of a major downswing?
[ QUOTE ]
I'm just wondering what the odds are that a long term 15% ROI player could lose 11 buy-ins over a 300 SNG stretch. [/ QUOTE ] Using the ROI simulator, I ran 10,000 simulations of 300 games each for a 15% ROI player. The largest drop out of the 10,000 was 57 buyins. 20% of the 10,000 had a drop larger than 11 buyins. |
#12
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Odds of a major downswing?
[ QUOTE ]
cool link, how come u have a .com domain? [/ QUOTE ] It's the fine work of "rvg72" of course... I host a couple sites for my kids sports/school. I had one not in use and had visions of creating a blog of some sorts...just haven't gotten around to it yet. |
#13
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Odds of a major downswing?
Results:
For a 15% ROI player, there's a 96.2% chance that you will be breakeven or better over 300 SNGs. As for my question, there's about a 1.2% chance of that drop occurring over 300 SNGs. |
#14
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Odds of a major downswing?
[ QUOTE ]
cool link, how come u have a .com domain? [/ QUOTE ] Cause he's a [censored] OG double OG ya heard? |
#15
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Odds of a major downswing?
I think you should be calculating the chance that a 15% player has a -10 buyin 300 sng run within 1800 sngs.
|
#16
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Odds of a major downswing?
[ QUOTE ]
I think you should be calculating the chance that a 15% player has a -10 buyin 300 sng run within 1800 sngs. [/ QUOTE ] No, I shouldn't. That would tell me my % chance of having a 10 buyin drop, which would obviously be higher than my chances of being down 10 buyins over any 300 SNG stretch. I wanted to know the chances of myself having a 10 buyin drop over 300 SNGs, and now I know the answer. Thanks bluefeet! |
#17
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Odds of a major downswing?
The chances of having a 10 buyin drop over 300 is pretty close to 100%, if not 100%.
|
#18
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Odds of a major downswing?
[ QUOTE ]
That would tell me my % chance of having a 10 buyin drop, [/ QUOTE ] You didn't understand me. I was suggesting you calculate the odds that a 15% player will have a -10 buyin drop over 300 sngs, within his 1800-1900 sng sample. You might be 1% or 5% to experience -10 buyins over 300 sngs, but you have played 1800-1900 and not 300, which makes this much more likely. |
#19
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Odds of a major downswing?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] That would tell me my % chance of having a 10 buyin drop, [/ QUOTE ] You didn't understand me. I was suggesting you calculate the odds that a 15% player will have a -10 buyin drop over 300 sngs, within his 1800-1900 sng sample. You might be 1% or 5% to experience -10 buyins over 300 sngs, but you have played 1800-1900 and not 300, which makes this much more likely. [/ QUOTE ] Exactly. Flip a coin 6 times. Chance you get six straight tails is 1/64. Flip a coin 100 times and the chance you stop somewhere along the line and post "Hey! I just got 6 tails in a row!" much much higher. Here is a link to a post where I put some tables that answer your question if you are a 10% ROI or 20% ROI. I didn't do the 15% case though. ROI variance tables Pokerscott |
#20
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Odds of a major downswing?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Search for the ROI simulator. It will run simulations that will tell you this. [/ QUOTE ] ROISimulator Hosted Original Thread [/ QUOTE ] Thanks for mentioning the app - glad it is getting some use. rvg |
|
|