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#2
12-19-2005, 07:19 AM
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Re: I folded TPTK for more one bet in a big pot on the river
you have a player on the button who overcalled with bottom pair on the river 3-ways, and a 55/16 in the CO who's done nothing but call every street. you're missing value by checking. if you check/call you'll usually only be putting in a bet when you're beaten, but if you bet you'll get called by worse hands. you can safely fold to a raise on this board, so by bet/folding you gain 1-2 bets when ahead and lose 1 when behind. if you check/call you might not get any bets when you have the best hand, and still lose the same one bet when you're beaten. gotta bet/fold this.
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#4
12-19-2005, 04:06 PM
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Re: I folded TPTK for more one bet in a big pot on the river
[ QUOTE ]
if you check/call you'll usually only be putting in a bet when you're beaten [/ QUOTE ] I'm not so sure about that. Since villain is only "moderately" aggro rather than very aggro, this is probably true. It's also very likely if the river goes "check, bet, call, call", hero will be inducing a bluff from CO and having the button call along with a worse hand. [ QUOTE ] but if you bet you'll get called by worse hands [/ QUOTE ] I guess the real question to ask is how likely is CO to bluffraise this scare river? Given this situation, is he likely to be doing it more often than 1 in 14 times? I guess button could have me beaten too, since he most likely won't 3-bet 2 pair or even the idiot end of the straight. I don't know, now you're getting tremendous odds in a pot where I honestly think hero might be good more often than this. Some LAG's tend to get tricky in spots like this, especially when the pot gets big. Unless I have a perfect read on the CO, I like c/c'ing. Against someone a bit more passive postflop, b/f is fine. Just MHO.
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#5
12-19-2005, 04:38 PM
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Re: I folded TPTK for more one bet in a big pot on the river
well, i tried. really though, moderately aggressive 5/10 6-max players aren't bluffraising the river here on a K6789 board in a multiway pot. you're just not going to see a worse hand. i know you really want to see a showdown here, but i really think that if a non-unknown is capable of bluffraising the river in a spot this bad/obvious (let alone doing it PERIOD,) you'd know about it already.
this is in fact a perfect situation to bet/fold, it's not misapplying the concept at all.
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#6
12-19-2005, 04:53 PM
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Re: I folded TPTK for more one bet in a big pot on the river
[ QUOTE ]
well, i tried. really though, moderately aggressive 5/10 6-max players aren't bluffraising the river here on a K6789 board in a multiway pot. you're just not going to see a worse hand. i know you really want to see a showdown here, but i really think that if a non-unknown is capable of bluffraising the river in a spot this bad/obvious (let alone doing it PERIOD,) you'd know about it already. [/ QUOTE ] It happens now and then when you least expect it. You need to remember that the bet-fold gains only a fraction of a BB of EV compared to checkcalling. Say 1/4 BB just to have a number. Compare that 1/4 BB gain with the roughly 10 BB you stand to lose from having the pot stolen and you see the true odds you are getting on this play. I'm not saying that the bet-fold is wrong this time. Actually I'm OK with it. But I think many players underestimate the risk they are running when they use this play. It's a whole pot versus the small fraction of a bet of EV they are trying to squeeze out by betting a dicey hand.
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#7
12-19-2005, 06:24 PM
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Re: I folded TPTK for more one bet in a big pot on the river
yeah, of course i can't claim a bluff raise here happens never... every time you use a bet/fold line you run the risk of folding a winner. it happens, people play weird sometimes. i don't think it happens often enough for there to be any concern with it in this situation though. sure bluff raising happens, but not as much as i think most people expect. i don't think it's overly tough to fold to a raise here.
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#8
12-19-2005, 09:12 PM
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Re: I folded TPTK for more one bet in a big pot on the river
[ QUOTE ]
i don't think it's overly tough to fold to a raise here. [/ QUOTE ] What are thoughts without Button cold-calling 2 on the river here?
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#9
12-19-2005, 04:11 PM
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Re: I folded TPTK for more one bet in a big pot on the river
[ QUOTE ]
you can safely fold to a raise on this board, so by bet/folding you gain 1-2 bets when ahead and lose 1 when behind. if you check/call you might not get any bets when you have the best hand, and still lose the same one bet when you're beaten. [/ QUOTE ] It's not all ONLY about gaining more bets when I'm ahead and losing less when I'm behind. It's about the chance of getting pushed off the best hand and losing a huge pot. The bet/fold line is a good line, but dangerous when misapplied. I'm willing to sacrifice a little river value once in a while in order to not cost myself the pot.
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