How low would you go...

When reading this situation I like to remember the post Sirio made on his log some time ago about folding AA preflop.

Button is going to be BB next hand and is auto-allin with any two cards. Given this information I would fold any two cards, even AA. Since a suckout is lurking around every corner.

[Bill Smith]

Hmm... time for a little math.

Against a random hand, or even slightly better than random hand, you're about 85% to double up with AA.

15% of the time, you take 3rd and get $250k.
85% of the time, you lock up 2nd and take 1st ~40% of the time. ($500k * .60 + $1M * .4) = $700k.

EV = $250k * .15 + $700k * .85 = $632.5k

If you fold AA, let's assume SB drops. You take 2nd 85% of the time and 1st about 15% of the time.

EV = $500k * .85 + $1M * .15 = $575k

Call with the AA.

[Exitonly]

no no, this is different han the sirio hand.

he had everything to lose, and nothing to gain, becacuse it was a satelite 12th paid as much as 1st, so theres no reason to go from say 10th chip stack to the leading chip stack when theres 13 left.

In this situation though where 1st is substantially more than 2nd, it helps us a lot to double up here. Still we're not going to want to get knocked out right now a big % of the time. So i'll be conservative still, and say he's only pushing the top 50% of hands. ANd i'll arbitrarily decide that i want to still be around 70% of the time, so that would be JJ+ .. and that's it.

if he's pushing more than 50%, or if you dont need quite 70% equity for it to be good, then add in 99+ AJs+ AQo+

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
no no, this is different han the sirio hand.

he had everything to lose, and nothing to gain, becacuse it was a satelite 12th paid as much as 1st, so theres no reason to go from say 10th chip stack to the leading chip stack when theres 13 left.

In this situation though where 1st is substantially more than 2nd, it helps us a lot to double up here. Still we're not going to want to get knocked out right now a big % of the time. So i'll be conservative still, and say he's only pushing the top 50% of hands. ANd i'll arbitrarily decide that i want to still be around 70% of the time, so that would be JJ+ .. and that's it.

if he's pushing more than 50%, or if you dont need quite 70% equity for it to be good, then add in 99+ AJs+ AQo+

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with Ansky's range pretty much. Maybe even ATs b/c I'm a sucker for that hand.

This isn't like the sirio situation for the reasons given, but also no one's really explicitly considered the fact that you need a stack to take on the big stack with. Everyone's implying that more chips=good, but what this really means is you have to put yourself in a position to WIN. Namely, imagine if the situation were that you had 500k and the shorty had 150k and the biggie had 10M. You can't pass up a chance to make yourself a stack to take on the big stack, otherwise you're basically conceeding winning an extra $250k for having no chance at first. You might go totally card dead the rest of the tourney. Take your shot now when you get it.

In my opinion, chips have increasing value here, as it gives you more than just a proportionate chance at taking a shot at the leader for every chip you get. You need wiggle room. Shorty could also magically suck out with 72o against Aces when he's forced to go all in, and you get fuzunked.

Always remember you're playing for first.

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
Always remember you're playing for first.

[/ QUOTE ]
First, sure. But you can avoid some situations on your way there. I would've called with TT in an instant if I had just a slightly lower stack myself. I would've folded a lot of hands if my stack would've been a bit bigger. I think 1M in this specific situation made things a bit tougher. If the shorty doubles or tripples up on the next hand, things aren't too cool anymore.

at this point i wouldnt be playing for first.. there is a huge dioff from 3rd to 2nd in pay. i owuld fold anything short of QQ b/c variance is a b**ch and u are in great shape for 2nd

[Lloyd]

That was referring to a satellite tournament where he could fold into the money. Very different here. And very dangerous to apply the same principles.

I know it isn't the same situation. And normally I wouldn't apply this principle, but the Button is being swallowed by the blinds in the next 2 rounds. If his stack was 2BB then I would definately not fold AA, but now he has to push in the SB otherwise a double up in the BB won't matter that much to his stack.

Ofcourse it's +EV to call with AA, but I rather play HU with a 5-to-1 chipdeficit then finish 3rd and donate an extra 250k to the shortstack. I know Christmas is coming, but this is insane!