|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Pl 25 middle set
[ QUOTE ]
Here's the thing with middle set in Omaha 8: you need your opponent to not have a top set most of the time. Because when you get all in with middle set against top set, you're practically dead, but when you get all in with middle set against say a flush draw, two pair or double draw, your opponent still has a decent amount of equity. This is especially true when there are low draws on the board (but not the case here). [/ QUOTE ] Phil, this is a right on. I got stacked today (yet again) holding middle set vs. top set. Until today, when I flopped middle set I used to say to myself, "Set vs. set is rare and that fearing top set is weak-tight thinking that costs more money than it saves." Set vs. set situations may be rare, but it does happen. And when you have middle set and someone plays back at you, considering your equity vs. other likely draws vs. the dangers of running into a bigger set and the risk/reward of continuing might not be there. |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Pl 25 middle set
Your post got me thinking, so I did the math of an all in with a NAKED middle set (no other nut features):
Math of Top Set vs Middle Set Heads Up: If they have top set, you have: 10% chance of winning (assume a backdoor as well as 1 out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) 90% chance of losing If they don't have top set, but another common all in hand like a double draw, flush + low draw, straight + low draw, wrap draw, etc: 60% equity for you 40% equity for them Assume S% of the time they have top set, the rest of the time they don't. We need to find the break even point. 0 = 60(100-S) - 40(100-S) - 90S + 10S 6000-60S - 4000 + 40S - 90S + 10S = 0 2000 - 100S = 0 S = 20% Thus, if they have top set more than 20% of the time, you're losing money in the long run by playing this way. Against a tight or solid player, you're definitely losing money in this spot. (Obviously pot odds can factor in but if you're facing a stack committing pot (re)raise from a good player, these are the numbers). I won't even consider bottom set here as most decent players throw it away to action or won't aggressively reraise it. Of course, if you're up against fishy or overly aggressive players, getting all in is the right course of action, but again not ridiculously profitable. Against a 70/30 (just a flush draw, or just a low draw) you stil need them to have top set less than 33% of the time just to break even. The fact that they may have bottom set does add some equity and against weaker players it's a clear all in. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Pl 25 middle set
Phil your correct about watching your pokertracker stats as we have played fewer than 100 hands together. So I may have caught you on a more aggressive session than usual. Against a player who has more normal stats ( like you state in your post ) I would take a much more careful line. I think I let the pokertracker read influence how I played the hand. A "solid" player forces me to consider folding to this much action. I just couldn't put you on the higher set.
|
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Pl 25 middle set
For those of you who care Phil did have the top set so I was in big trouble. However I was able to put a badbeat on him by runner runner for the nut flush.
I don't know how much the backdoor flush or low adds to my outs but I'd guess they were worth about 1 out each - so maybe I had 3 outs total. Will have to watch my reads before getting in too deep with middle set. |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Pl 25 middle set
Fold preflop.
|
|
|