($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop

[tigerite]

This is as far as I have got so far

0.085 * (5/6) * 0.8 = 0
0.085 * (1/6) * 0.8 = 0.0541

0.065 * (5/6) * 0.44 = 0
0.065 * (1/6) * 0.44 = 0.0541

0.085 * (1/6) * 0.2 = 0.1843
0.085 * (1/6) * 0.2 = 0.1847
0.085 * (1/6) * 0.2 = 0.1429 (small stack calls)
0.085 * (1/6) * 0.2 = 0.1811 (big stack calls)
0.085 * (1/6) * 0.2 = 0.1823 (sb calls)
0.085 * (1/6) * 0.2 = 0.1807 (bb calls)

0.065 * (1/6) * 0.56 = 0.1843
0.065 * (1/6) * 0.56 = 0.1847
0.065 * (1/6) * 0.56 = 0.1429 (small stack calls)
0.065 * (1/6) * 0.56 = 0.1811 (big stack calls)
0.065 * (1/6) * 0.56 = 0.1823 (sb calls)
0.065 * (1/6) * 0.56 = 0.1807 (bb calls)

[curtains]

Awesome you did the stuff after the hero! I was too lazy...anyway time for bed for real now, see ya!

[tigerite]

Ok got the no overcall bit and if he really is raising 99+,AJ+ and only calls QQ+,AK+ then curtains is right

No overcall
0.85

evF Push/fold 0.1083
evL Push/lose 0
evW Push/win 0.176

Assume raising with 99+,AJ+

6 ways for 99,TT,QQ,KK,AA = 30
1 way for JJ = 1
16 ways for AK,AQ = 32
8 ways for AJ = 8
Total = 71 / 1225 = 5.8%

Assume calls with QQ+,AK+

6 ways for QQ,KK,AA = 18
16 ways for AK = 16
Total = 34 / 1225 = 2.8%

Therefore
Re-raise fold % rrF = 0.517
Re-raise push/win % rrW = 0.3619 (against QQ+,AK+)

So..
(rrF * evF) + ((1 - rrF) * evL * (1 - rrW)) + ((1 - rrF) * evW * rrW)

0.85 * [ (0.517 * 0.1083) + (0.483 * 0 * 0.6381) + (0.483 * 0.176 * 0.3619) ]

= 0.85 * [ 0.0559911 + 0 + 0.0307643952 ]
= 0.85 * [ 0.0867554952 ]

0.0867554952 is already less than EV/fold which is 0.0935.

[tigerite]

So it seems my original assumption that him folding more is actually bad for you was right. I thought it was a bit strange how the higher his fold % got, the looser his range had to become but looking at this maths again it makes perfect sense.

tigerite you are awesome! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I don't get a word of all the calculations, but it's still interesting. So we now know that if he minraises a tight range, and calls with an even tighter range, it's -EV to push? Makes sense, because you'll lose your stack relatively often, and there are not so many chips in the pot already that it becomes +EV, right? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

But if you give villain a realistic (looser) range, it's +EV? If you have 600-700 chips it's +EV?

[tigerite]

Well I didn't complete the "what happens after you" part for when people overcall with QQ+,AK+. Actually, I'll do that now I guess.

0.15 * [ (0.166667 * 0.638 * 0.0541) + (0.833333 * 0.638 * 0) + (0.166667 * 0.362 * 0.1843) + (0.166667 * 0.362 * 0.1847) + .... ) ]

Well we can straight away take out 0.83333 * 0 as that's just 0 and everything else is multiplied by 0.166667 so

0.15 * 0.166667 * { [ 0.362 * (0.1843 + 0.1847 + 0.1429 + 0.1811 + 0.1823 + 0.1807) ] + [ 0.638 * 0.0541 ] }

= 0.15 * 0.16667 * [ (0.362 * 1.056) + (0.638 * 0.0541) ]
= 0.15 * 0.16667 * [ 0.382272 + 0.0345158 ]
= 0.010419695

From before

0.85 * 0.0867554952
= 0.07374217092

So the actual answer is

0.010419695 (when overcalled) + 0.07374217092 = 0.08416186592

The overcall chance costs you maybe 0.25% $EV. Not a lot but slightly significant.

Anyway it would take me really too long to work out if you have less chips! But I would guess the push would be much better then, yes. Also if he has a looser range we have to define which of that range he calls with. Gimme those two ranges and I can do it.

[45suited]

Nice work tigerite.

The only thing is that I think by using Curtains' parameters, we're giving our opponents way too much credit. (I know that they are valid at his level, but this is a 55.)

Not only do guys mini-raise with weak hands, but we are also giving them way too much credit for reacting perfectly to our push. Do you really think that pushing is bad at a 55, or just that pushing is bad against top notch opposition? Cuz I'm pushing this all day. Just my opinion.