#31
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Re: Checking and Calling my way to millions
his preflop 3bet is pretty thin, i would say its about ev neutral. Also Raise! was UTG+1, not UTG. (I wasnt trying to be a dick with my post, I was looking at your post without Schneids' right in front of me and forgot that he was UTG+1 and not UTG as you said). See my title if you want the reason why I wasnt lookin at your post and Schneids at the same time.
i would put his range about here, he may not raise K9s and he may raise A7s, who knows. 304,790,112 games 1.734 secs 175,772,844 games/sec Board: Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 50.4740 % 46.98% 03.49% { AcTc } Hand 2: 49.5260 % 46.03% 03.49% { 66+, A8s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, A9o+, KTo+, QJo } |
#32
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Re: Checking and Calling my way to millions
I LIKE
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#33
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Re: Checking and Calling my way to millions
"I wasnt trying to be a dick with my post,"
never thought you were, anyway i think if he's folding A7s utg but raising it utg+1, that's just such a tough distinction. raising K9s but not raising A7s makes no sense to me so maybe a mush expert can explain why someone might do that. i would be inclined to raise A7s utg 6 handed in all but the toughest games so maybe i should shut up now... anyway schneids 3 bet w/ ATs here gave me the impression utg (er i mean utg+1) would be raising with a wider range of hands here including several Axs combos if not all of them. and ive learned so far to always err on the side of schneids being right. but in order for schneids to be right here it means postflop he may missed a raise somewhere along the line, thus making him wrong.. got that? back to shutting up. |
#34
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Re: Checking and Calling my way to millions
[ QUOTE ]
"I wasnt trying to be a dick with my post," never thought you were, anyway i think if he's folding A7s utg but raising it utg+1, that's just such a tough distinction. raising K9s but not raising A7s makes no sense to me so maybe a mush expert can explain why someone might do that. i would be inclined to raise A7s utg 6 handed in all but the toughest games so maybe i should shut up now... anyway schneids 3 bet w/ ATs here gave me the impression utg (er i mean utg+1) would be raising with a wider range of hands here including several Axs combos if not all of them. and ive learned so far to always err on the side of schneids being right. but in order for schneids to be right here it means postflop he may missed a raise somewhere along the line, thus making him wrong.. got that? back to shutting up. [/ QUOTE ] in the hijack i think hes opening most Axs. i also agree with A7s > K9s. but i dont think that means he misplayed postflop. assuming any A will value bet (on the river thats tough. he can put schneider on Ax, KJ, or a smaller pair, and if eh has a weak Ax, theres not much value in betting. so maybe this isnt a given), theres no value in betting his AT. worse hands either fold or bet if checked to, better hands raise, and maybe this guys read is off and he tries to bluff. |
#35
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Re: Checking and Calling my way to millions
"theres no value in betting his AT"
i agree, but i was saying schneids should c/r the river. and then we got into this discussion about what hands villain could have. and now im back to saying if schneids cant c/r the river here and enjoy getting paid off nicely by Ax as well as having something like kings up just call, he shouldnt be 3 betting preflop because then villain's hand range is too narrow for hero to be picking a fight with him out of position. |
#36
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Re: Checking and Calling my way to millions
[ QUOTE ]
"theres no value in betting his AT" i agree, but i was saying schneids should c/r the river. and then we got into this discussion about what hands villain could have. and now im back to saying if schneids cant c/r the river here and enjoy getting paid off nicely by Ax as well as having something like kings up just call, he shouldnt be 3 betting preflop because then villain's hand range is too narrow for hero to be picking a fight with him out of position. [/ QUOTE ] checkraising might be right, but there are some hands, JTs and KQ, that are worse hands preflop that now beat him. also, smaller pairs wont bet or pay off a bet so they are taken out of the equation completely. so while i think there is some correlation between preflop and the river, i dont think its as strong as you make it out to be. |
#37
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Re: Checking and Calling my way to millions
[ QUOTE ]
"theres no value in betting his AT" i agree, but i was saying schneids should c/r the river. and then we got into this discussion about what hands villain could have. and now im back to saying if schneids cant c/r the river here and enjoy getting paid off nicely by Ax as well as having something like kings up just call, he shouldnt be 3 betting preflop because then villain's hand range is too narrow for hero to be picking a fight with him out of position. [/ QUOTE ] Hey mike, I keep forgetting about this thread, sorry. I think your thoughts are good and what I should do if the turn and river are not broadway cards. Given that the turn was a broadway card, it hits a lot of the hands that R! is peeling with, yet he's good enough that bet/calling sucks too because he's going to bluff at close enough to the right frequency that I'm going to be in dicey spots (he's not rockish enough that i can just fold, and he isn't aggro enough that i can just call down 100% and feel happy with it). |
#38
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Re: Checking and Calling my way to millions
[ QUOTE ]
i would put his range about here, he may not raise K9s and he may raise A7s, who knows. 304,790,112 games 1.734 secs 175,772,844 games/sec Board: Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 50.4740 % 46.98% 03.49% { AcTc } Hand 2: 49.5260 % 46.03% 03.49% { 66+, A8s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, A9o+, KTo+, QJo } [/ QUOTE ] I think this opening range for him UTG+1 looks pretty reasonable and close to what it is in reality. FWIW I 3-bet as much to try to quickly win the pot postflop as I did for value. For comparison purposes, lets say that Steve95 was feeling super tight one day and adhered to these raising standards from UTG+1, but played his normal style postflop. I'd be much much less likely to take the initiative vs him, because the initiative is not worth as much against him and he is less likely to give credit for a hand and just fold when he misses. VS R!, however, if the hand hot-and-cold is about 50-50 vs R!, I think it's gains more value with actual postflop playing by having the initiative, since he is more likely to give me credit for a strong hand. |
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