#1
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$60 AJ on Bubble
PokerStars Game #3346336488: Tournament #16574080, Hold'em No Limit - Level IX
(300/600) - 2005/12/16 - 00:06:39 (ET) Table '16574080 1' Seat #6 is the button Seat 1: biglooser (4695 in chips) Seat 2: eagleskickas (2871 in chips) Seat 5: PizdaLover (5000 in chips) Seat 6: HeresJohny (934 in chips) biglooser: posts the ante 50 eagleskickas: posts the ante 50 PizdaLover: posts the ante 50 HeresJohny: posts the ante 50 biglooser: posts small blind 300 eagleskickas: posts big blind 600 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to eagleskickas [Js Ad] PizdaLover: raises 4350 to 4950 and is all-in HeresJohny: folds biglooser: folds eagleskickas: ? If there wasn't the shorty I'd instacall but do I need to fold what will be the best hand most of the time because of the short stack. |
#2
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Re: $60 AJ on Bubble
Easy easy fold.
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#3
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Re: $60 AJ on Bubble
I also thought this was an easy fold.
But surprisingly this is EV+0.4%, so not exactly worth calling, but not horrendous either. Am I screwing something up in SnGPT? It's telling me maximum calling range here is 77+, AQo, ATs+, which I thought was waaaaaaaay too wide. |
#4
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Re: $60 AJ on Bubble
You must be, as this is a really simple fold.
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#5
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Re: $60 AJ on Bubble
Well unless you put him squarely on above 70% range.
You need to win 63.3% of the time. I think this is just really quite optimistic and his hand has to be in a really narrow range to have anything close to this. This hand actually shows why the KS chart isn't always perfect. I believe the reason it's coming up with AJ as a possible call here is because it rates his chances to be pushing A2-AT and KJ,QJ much higher than junk - to which of course you will be a greater than 63% favourite. But against two undercards which is a much likelier holding if he's pushing that wide a range - you're not getting enough % to call. |
#6
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Re: $60 AJ on Bubble
Well I was actually assuming Villain is raising 100%, which is clearly not likely, to get the +EV 0.4%. I just thought this was one of those "you can't beat me by calling my any two" moments.
If you narrow his hand range to the top 63% though, it's pretty much EV neutral, which was still surprisingly tight. Btw - is there anyway in SnGPT to get the "Compute All" for his pushing range (i.e. what % he'd have to be pushing for me to call w/ XYZ) other than trial and error? Doesn't look like there's a way in my version ... |
#7
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Re: $60 AJ on Bubble
[ QUOTE ] If there wasn't the shorty I'd instacall but do I need to fold what will be the best hand most of the time because of the short stack. [/ QUOTE ] Even without the shortie you would be surprised how many times you should fold AJ here. The problem is that as pointed out already your not that huge a favorite unless your sharing. Pretty Easy fold with those stacks. The fact that calling is +ev if villan is pushing any 2 should make this a very easy decision. If he is pushing any 2 (which you should know by now) call, if he has any sort of hand selection at this point then fold. |
#8
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Re: $60 AJ on Bubble
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If there wasn't the shorty I'd instacall but do I need to fold what will be the best hand most of the time because of the short stack. [/ QUOTE ] Even without the shortie you would be surprised how many times you should fold AJ here. The problem is that as pointed out already your not that huge a favorite unless your sharing. Pretty Easy fold with those stacks. The fact that calling is +ev if villan is pushing any 2 should make this a very easy decision. If he is pushing any 2 (which you should know by now) call, if he has any sort of hand selection at this point then fold. [/ QUOTE ] If it was 3 equal stacks and a big stack I gamble it up all day here in the stars turbos. You get a serious premium on winning the hand since the blinds are so high and the bubble will continue with you in a massive lead. (This is assuming the big stack is pushing 70% or so, not sure how likely that is at this level) This hand is a fold. |
#9
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Re: $60 AJ on Bubble
[ QUOTE ]
Btw - is there anyway in SnGPT to get the "Compute All" for his pushing range (i.e. what % he'd have to be pushing for me to call w/ XYZ) other than trial and error? Doesn't look like there's a way in my version ... [/ QUOTE ] I don't think there is an automatic way, but by inserting his push range as a percentage you can narrow it down quick enough. |
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