#7
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Re: Laggiest Game Ever
Ooops, you're right -- I messed up the calculation in the earlier pot anyway; I forgot to reduce the expected profit when you missed your draw. Disregard my earlier post.
I'll try again, and hopefully not screw this one up. For the suited connectors... Assumptions: 5.25:1 to flop flush draw/OESD. 28:1 to flop a made hand. 28:1 to flop a gutshot. ~2:1 to hit your flush/OESD. ~5:1 to hit your gutshot. You'll fold the flop without a draw or made hand. You'll fold the river without making your draw. All streets are capped at 4 bets. Your hand, if you make it, will hold up 90% of the time. Fold on the flop: (.77)*2BB Flop a good draw and miss: (.16)*(2/3)*8BB Flop a good draw, hit it, lose: (.16)*(1/3)*(.1)*12BB Flop a made hand and lose: (.035)*(.1)*12BB Flop a gutshot and miss: (.035)*(5/6)*8BB Flop a gutshot, hit, lose: (.035)*(1/6)*(.1)*12BB Total cost per hand you play and lose: ~2.75 BB % won with good draw: (.16)*(1/3)*(.9) % won with made hand: (.035)*(.9) % won with gutshot: (.035)*(1/6)*(.9) You'll win ~8.5% of the hands you play. Break-even point: (2.75BB)/(.085)= ~32.5 BB That is, there to be 32.5 BB in the pot from other people when you win for this to be EV neutral. PP |
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