Coin flip middle of a tourney, do you take it?

[ThrillFactor]

FWIW, I'd auto-push here 90% of the time. The other 10% would be those times when the min-raise seemed out of place for my opponent, and I'd have to evaluate deeper.

The reason I'm responding however is to pass along a sobering piece of advice that was handed down to me a year ago on this forum. Trying to exclude AA-QQ here from your opponent's range is just wishful thinking. You're trying to ignore possibilities either during or after-the-fact to help justify your play. There is, of course, a big difference between putting your opponent on an accurate range vs. assigning him some holdings that give your hand the best chance of winning.

Unless you have a huge database on this opponent that shows he has NEVER min-raised in EP with AA-QQ, then they must be included.

That being said, against most villians, it's still an easy push.

Thanks. you are right, he could have had AA-QQ, but at the time I didnt think he did. i made that assesment at the time, i may have just been making that assesment in my head to justify what I was doing, who realy knows.

Thinking now i should have made it about 2k and see what he does, wouldnt have looked so desperate

[ThrillFactor]

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Thinking now i should have made it about 2k and see what he does, wouldnt have looked so desperate

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NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

Don't even consider reraising 40% of your stack with AK. What happens when you miss the flop (as you will 2/3 of the time) and he bets into you?

Given stack v. blind sizes in this hand, if you're going to raise it needs to be a push. If someone else wants to make an argument for flat-calling and playing a flop, I'll leave that to them. Personally I don't like it.

Folding is out of the question. Calling has a whole slew of disadvantages. And raising mandates a push based on stack size.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,294,501,824 games 1.204 secs 1,075,167,627 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 47.9422 % [ 00.41 00.07 ] { AKo }
Hand 2: 52.0578 % [ 00.45 00.07 ] { AA-77, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }


You're behind his range if your guess is accurate, but you have tons of FE against over 1/2 of his range and there's over 20% of your stack in dead money in the pot.

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Thinking now i should have made it about 2k and see what he does, wouldnt have looked so desperate

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NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

Don't even consider reraising 40% of your stack with AK. What happens when you miss the flop (as you will 2/3 of the time) and he bets into you?

Given stack v. blind sizes in this hand, if you're going to raise it needs to be a push.

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I think there are some merits in re-raising with say, 1500-1800 in this specific situation. Miini-raises can range from slow-played monsters to probing bets by mid-PPs trying to get a feel where they stand. By re-raising you are representing a big hand. If villain re-raises, muck, lick your wounds hoping to get a decent hand with your short stack. In the buy-ns that I play, I have yet to encounter a re-re-raise below JJ, Ditto if he calls and bets out on the flop. However, there is the likelihood (I'm not a math guy and don't know how to calculate this) that villain checks if the flop contains overcards to his PP or misses with his AK, AQ or maybe AJ which I can then take advantage of by pushing. I also find that in lower buy-ins it is quite often to see insta-call of pushes with small/mid-PPs. These are the players who are either afraid or indecisive to play post-flop and most likely check if flop is missed.

Correct me please, if my thought process is convoluted.

[winky51]

Let me correct my statement. My reraise would be 2.5 to 3x his raise. 2000 is prob too much. 1800 seems right.

[winky51]

I feel this is the right play, reraising 2k. I prefer to reraise OOP and call in position usually.

If the player is not a 2+2er or on that skill level the 1st thing that goes through his mind is "He's got AK, I call because I'm ahead" or "He's got a small pair, I call because I'm 50/50"

They don't think about stack sizes, odds, the possibiliy they are out of the tournament. The annoyance of being reraised all in gives them an excuse to call with lessor hands and pairs. See it all the time.

Now if you reraise a good amount.. then it looks suspicious. First thing they think of is AA or KK or even QQ. Now when the board comes A K or Q they fold.

I try not to push all in at tournaments. I would rather reraise to make them think then bet the flop.

If you think about it lets say you push your AK 4 times and each thime they have AQ. Well to win 4 times in a row is 30%

Lets mix it up. dominated 1/2 of the time, coin flip 1/2 the time. 14% of the time you are going to win all 4.

I would rather win a smaller pot 4x 100% of the time then push 4x on 75% win rate.

Now if your field is mostly better players that understand pot odds, and hands then yes I can see it.

Most of my field (90%) are average to poor players. Very few with pot odds concepts or risk analysis.

With 90% bad players you will have few that bust and few that have monster stacks. The good players either go up or down slow in stacks. Their ratio is equal to the monster stacks of the loose bad players (because of the 10:1 ratio). Since most of the players are loose they will call your push more. 100 player tournament with 90 bad and 10 good your probably looking at 12 with stacks bigger than yours, 13 with stacks that are close to yours. 20 with stacks that can cripple you. Not sure if this makes sense or not. But as I play live tournaments I push less and less and seem to go farther and farther. I protect my stack.

Making it 2k for what reason? Your not folding if he sticks in the extra 1k? And if a bigger stack comes in and reraises you, you have shoved in almost 50% and are committed anyway. Just go all-in your like 50/50 against his range if you include AQ assuming no FE, but you do have FE if he's a good player.