#21
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Re: 10/20 AK preflop
Fold JJ and call QQ
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#22
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Re: 10/20 AK preflop
Although now that I think about it, there's really no effective difference between JJ and QQ in this spot
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#23
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Re: 10/20 AK preflop
I was at the table and thought the fold was right. We found out over the next 50 or so hands that the capper was a huge moron who decided to give away all his money but at the time it seemed like the right move.
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#24
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Re: 10/20 AK preflop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Umm.. what they will cold cap with? [/ QUOTE ] We will rarely have enough data, either from mining or from observation-based reads, to know the answer to this question and be able to make decisions based on it. [/ QUOTE ] How many times do you need to see them cold cap with 99 to know that they'll do it? I'm not even saying that that makes it call, I just think that it's odd that you and Evan don't apparently see any value in a description of how a guy plays beyond the numbers. |
#25
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Re: 10/20 AK preflop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Umm.. what they will cold cap with? [/ QUOTE ] We will rarely have enough data, either from mining or from observation-based reads, to know the answer to this question and be able to make decisions based on it. [/ QUOTE ] But it does happen in those rare times. I can count on 1 hand how often I've made this laydown. But that is a problem with stats. It doesn't really show how often they 3 bet or cap. Though I'm also not great at reading and interpreting stats. I do better from just observing. For some, the range of hands for those raises narrows significantly. I think Dids brought up a good point. b |
#26
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Re: 10/20 AK preflop
[ QUOTE ]
I just think that it's odd that you and Evan don't apparently see any value in a description of how a guy plays beyond the numbers. [/ QUOTE ] I just think it's unreasonable, not necesarily unvaluable. Let's say he'll cap with AK, AKs, AQs, AQo, AA, KK, QQ and JJ. I think this is too wide, but hopefully it will help make my point. <font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> equity (%) win (%) / tie (%) Hand 1: 20.3124 % [ 00.15 00.06 ] { AKo } Hand 2: 20.3116 % [ 00.19 00.01 ] { AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo } Hand 3: 29.6600 % [ 00.26 00.03 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo } Hand 4: 29.7160 % [ 00.26 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo } </pre><hr /> Take out the weaker offsuit hands for the open raiser and the AQ hands from the capper and we have this: <font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> equity (%) win (%) / tie (%) Hand 1: 17.3107 % [ 00.11 00.06 ] { AKo } Hand 2: 20.6327 % [ 00.19 00.01 ] { AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-AJo, KQo } Hand 3: 27.1062 % [ 00.25 00.03 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo } Hand 4: 34.9504 % [ 00.31 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo } </pre><hr /> Tighen up the 3 bettor's range to what a guy with a PFR of 6 would probably do on a day where he was feeling frisky and we have: <font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> equity (%) win (%) / tie (%) Hand 1: 15.3903 % [ 00.09 00.06 ] { AKo } Hand 2: 19.8966 % [ 00.19 00.01 ] { AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-AJo, KQo } Hand 3: 31.3360 % [ 00.28 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AQs, AKo } Hand 4: 33.3772 % [ 00.29 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo } </pre><hr /> Combine all that with the fact that it's going to be really hard to avoid getting owned postflop and I really can't think of any reason to call. |
#27
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Re: 10/20 AK preflop
[ QUOTE ]
Although now that I think about it, there's really no effective difference between JJ and QQ in this spot [/ QUOTE ] That's not true. QQ dominates AQ, but not AK. It also dominates JJ. Would you say that the different between KK and QQ is negligible as well? [ QUOTE ] How many times do you need to see them cold cap with 99 to know that they'll do it? I'm not even saying that that makes it call, I just think that it's odd that you and Evan don't apparently see any value in a description of how a guy plays beyond the numbers. [/ QUOTE ] In general, people's raising range > 3-betting range > capping range. If someone has 99 in their standard cold-capping range, their PFR usually isn't 11%. |
#28
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Re: 10/20 AK preflop
How can anything other than folding be considered [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]? You'd need some pretty strong reads to play this, certainly more than we have from those stats.
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#29
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Re: 10/20 AK preflop
AK is a drawing hand.
-Michael |
#30
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Re: 10/20 AK preflop
[ QUOTE ]
AK is a drawing hand. -Michael [/ QUOTE ] Pot odds? |
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