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#1
12-12-2005, 11:04 AM
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Re: insta fold with overpair 25/50
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i don't see how you could possibly call a min-raise and then check/fold a pretty ideal flop for QQ. either fold to the min-raise, or bet the flop and then play poker. [/ QUOTE ]this advice is spot on, unless you have a very nice read that his hand is only KK or AA based on his postflop bet. Why can't he have AK, anyways I like push/fold preflop here. [/ QUOTE ] Interesting; I think his advice, and yours, is dead wrong. I think he's saying that his read indicates AA/KK and not AK, so he's calling to set (or conceivably bluff when an Ace falls). Pushing pre-flop seems really, really bad. There's already a small relative chance he has something other than AA/KK (bayesian analysis notwithstanding), and in the event his read is off, pushing will ensure that he doesn't get action from a worse hand. True, he will probably force AK out, but again, I think the chances of AK are extremely small given his description of this player. Folding is viable, against someone inexperienced and super-tight, calling is OK, too, IMO. 
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#3
12-12-2005, 12:22 PM
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Re: insta fold with overpair 25/50
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Pushing pre-flop seems really, really bad. There's already a small relative chance he has something other than AA/KK [/ QUOTE ] mehhhhhhhhhhhhhh. [/ QUOTE ] As eloquent as this is, would you mind explaining what else you think villain can be on? Do supertight players do this with 88? JJ? AQ?
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#4
12-12-2005, 12:26 PM
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Re: insta fold with overpair 25/50
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Pushing pre-flop seems really, really bad. There's already a small relative chance he has something other than AA/KK [/ QUOTE ] mehhhhhhhhhhhhhh. [/ QUOTE ] As eloquent as this is, would you mind explaining what else you think villain can be on? Do supertight players do this with 88? JJ? AQ? [/ QUOTE ] OP said: [ QUOTE ] Villain is the tightest player here and pretty straight forward. [/ QUOTE ] This makes me think that he doesnt know villain very well. Tight straightforward players rarely would minraise w/ AA/KK here. That said they rarely minraise w/ anything else; but i'm not inclined to believe villain's range is only AA/KK here. Doesnt mean i dont fold preflop; but i think far >25% of the time villain doesnt have AA/KK. Still not sure what my action would be in OP's spot...
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#6
12-12-2005, 06:11 PM
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Re: insta fold with overpair 25/50
actually this is live and i know villain very well....
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#7
12-12-2005, 11:51 PM
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Re: insta fold with overpair 25/50
[ QUOTE ]
actually this is live and i know villain very well.... [/ QUOTE ] this changes things a lot. I'm thinking about the UB 25/50 games w/ my previous responses and admittedly i know very little about live play. I think if villain has AA/KK only 1/3 of the time; but plays well postflop- that this is still a fold preflop.
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#8
12-12-2005, 06:12 PM
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Re: insta fold with overpair 25/50
durrr,
[ QUOTE ] i think far >25% of the time villain doesnt have AA/KK. [/ QUOTE ] What? Help me out here; the action went call 50, call 50, call 50, raise to 500, tightest player at the table re-raises to 1000. Also, Hero has QQ. You think Villain has less than KK "way more than 25%" of the time? I think he has AA/KK 95% at least, with the odd JJ/other QQ thrown in, and some tiny allowance for insanity. I think he has AK less than 1% of the time. Who would play AK this way? Why would you reraise, yet make it as inviting as possible for Hero to call if you have AK? Wouldn't you agree that most people are (at least) calling 500 more there with AK, JJ, and everything better, yet folding AK/JJ/QQ at least 25% of the time to a push of 5000? The only reasoning for playing AK this way against a sane opponent that I can think of is that you feel a raise to 1000 is scarier, and think this guy is capable of laying down QQ and JJ for 500 more. The chances Villain is doing that are between slim and none, IMO.
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#9
12-12-2005, 06:21 PM
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Re: insta fold with overpair 25/50
[ QUOTE ]
The only reasoning for playing AK this way against a sane opponent that I can think of is that you feel a raise to 1000 is scarier, and think this guy is capable of laying down QQ and JJ for 500 more. The chances Villain is doing that are between slim and none, IMO. [/ QUOTE ] That is why it is horrible to show your hand. I agree 100% with your post Cero.
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#10
12-12-2005, 10:27 PM
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Re: insta fold with overpair 25/50
[ QUOTE ]
durrr, [ QUOTE ] i think far >25% of the time villain doesnt have AA/KK. [/ QUOTE ] What? Help me out here; the action went call 50, call 50, call 50, raise to 500, tightest player at the table re-raises to 1000. Also, Hero has QQ. You think Villain has less than KK "way more than 25%" of the time? I think he has AA/KK 95% at least, with the odd JJ/other QQ thrown in, and some tiny allowance for insanity. I think he has AK less than 1% of the time. Who would play AK this way? Why would you reraise, yet make it as inviting as possible for Hero to call if you have AK? Wouldn't you agree that most people are (at least) calling 500 more there with AK, JJ, and everything better, yet folding AK/JJ/QQ at least 25% of the time to a push of 5000? The only reasoning for playing AK this way against a sane opponent that I can think of is that you feel a raise to 1000 is scarier, and think this guy is capable of laying down QQ and JJ for 500 more. The chances Villain is doing that are between slim and none, IMO. [/ QUOTE ] THANK YOU. I think it's absurd how little respect people are willing to give certain people's hands just because they didn't play their AA the same way we would.
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