pop quiz

[Guthrie]

I just want to know how to run the SQL query and get the results.

[bottomset]

I personally haven't seen very much bluffing going on in massive pots that are HU, because

A. 20BB pots are rare
B. most massive pots aren't HU

I'm not sure what the average players bluff frequency is in 20BB pots

also boards with broken draws are more likely to have a river bluff than the raggy boards, and LAGs tend to have a hell I can only win with a bluff mentality a lot

so if he's only winning 5% against LAGs he's likely too tight

[SoftcoreRevolt]

It feels like we are not getting enough information here for some reason. I'm leaning towards too tight, But right now I'm mainly bothered by the fact the subject of this thread wasn't "POP QUIZ HOTSHOT"

[tyler_cracker]

If OMR wants his crying calls to be +EV, he needs to be right *more* than 5% of the time. Thus, he is too loose with his crying calls (because they are zero EV).

Now that i've answered, can i throw out a "this poll sucks" post? Sweet.

THIS POLL SUCKS.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

He's too loose.

He should have just called on the times it was LIKELY his opponent was bluffing.

[elindauer]

The answer I was looking for was: he's too loose.

The point was to show that if you need to win at 5% to justify a call, your true win rate when you call should be much higher. This is because every call you make should have, as a floor, a 5% win rate. You should get plenty of opportunities to call with much better odds than this though, and those calls should drive your winrate up.

If you answered too loose because he should fold if he's exactly 19:1 against then you got the right answer for the wrong reason. I should have made it "just a tiny fraction better than 5%" to make this logic clearly wrong.

If you got the wrong answer because it was unclear that I meant the 5% to refer to his winrate when he calls, and not overall, I apologize for the confusing wording.


thanks,
Eric

[rgb]

[ QUOTE ]
The answer I was looking for was: he's too loose.

The point was to show that if you need to win at 5% to justify a call, your true win rate when you call should be much higher. This is because every call you make should have, as a floor, a 5% win rate. You should get plenty of opportunities to call with much better odds than this though, and those calls should drive your winrate up.

If you answered too loose because he should fold if he's exactly 19:1 against then you got the right answer for the wrong reason. I should have made it "just a tiny fraction better than 5%" to make this logic clearly wrong.

If you got the wrong answer because it was unclear that I meant the 5% to refer to his winrate when he calls, and not overall, I apologize for the confusing wording.


thanks,
Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

He's breaking exactly even so..

profit from +EV calls = loss from -EV calls

He can up his winrate by :

1. calling more (+EV calls)
2. calling less (-EV calls)

I don't see where looseness or tightness comes into it.

I've probably missed the whole point of your question so just ignore this if you want [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]



rgb

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
He's breaking exactly even so..

profit from +EV calls = loss from -EV calls

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah, that's the point. "Loss from -EV calls" should be 0. You should never make a -EV call, right? If he has lots of -EV calls, it means he's calling too much. If he stops calling in those spots he currently thinks are close, he'll make more money. That is, if he plays tighter in this spot, he'll do better. That's what I was driving at in this total bomb of a thread.

[rgb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's breaking exactly even so..

profit from +EV calls = loss from -EV calls

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah, that's the point. "Loss from -EV calls" should be 0. You should never make a -EV call, right? If he has lots of -EV calls, it means he's calling too much. If he stops calling in those spots he currently thinks are close, he'll make more money. That is, if he plays tighter in this spot, he'll do better. That's what I was driving at in this total bomb of a thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Profit from +EV calls" should be maximum possible. You should always make a +EV call, right? If he has too few +EV calls, it means he's calling too little. If he calls more in those spots he currently thinks are close, he'll make more money. That is, if he plays looser in this spot, he'll do better.

Don't see how you can choose one over the other from the information given.

If he likes to call and has made almost every +EV call correctly then he has also made a ton of -EV calls to break even. (fold more)

If he likes to fold and has made only a few +EV calls then he has made only a few -EV calls to break even. (call more)

rgb

[ QUOTE ]
That's what I was driving at in this total bomb of a thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well said