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#2
12-09-2005, 10:49 PM
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Re: 21 point teaser EV question
[ QUOTE ]
5Dimes takes these things. They call them Monster Teasers and ties lose. Tech...you can use totals in them too,even team totals. I was looking at them the week Baltimore played Pittsburgh and the over for the Ravens for a 14 pt teaser was 4 [/ QUOTE ] Yeah but there is no way they can do it at those odds, at least I don't think. I haven't done the math on this, but here is my gut feeling. If I have to make 10 selections on sides teasing 21 points each at -170, I'm not sure that is +EV. If I can include sides and totals, I'm pretty sure it would be +EV. If I can include sides, totals, and team totals, the place will be broke in a month. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] 
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#3
12-10-2005, 12:08 AM
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Re: 21 point teaser EV question
I seriously doubt they include totals. I checked, and teasing the over with 21 points hits at 95.61% (counting ties as losses). That's enough to make it +EV to blindly tease all overs. Remove the highest 3rd of the totals, and you're up to 96.34% and a teaser win-rate of about 69%.
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#4
12-10-2005, 09:32 PM
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Re: 21 point teaser EV question
Totals are allowed; team totals are not.
I am checking as we speak to make certain this has not changed but it has been this way for years.
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#5
12-09-2005, 11:18 PM
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Re: 21 point teaser EV question
[ QUOTE ]
I was looking at them the week Baltimore played Pittsburgh and the over for the Ravens for a 14 pt teaser was 4 [/ QUOTE ] Are you sure this wasnt Baltimores total after teasing it? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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#7
12-10-2005, 09:25 PM
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Re: 21 point teaser EV question
Do ties lose ?
Never noticed that before. Better stick to the half-point games [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#9
12-10-2005, 09:06 PM
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Re: 21 point teaser EV question
I don't have time to read all the responese - likely someone else answered correctly but just in case . . .
A teaser is a parlay of 2 [or more] events; these events range in likelyhood of occurrence from ~ 68% (6 point line move) to upwards of 90% in the case of this 21 point line move. In order for this wager to be +EV, the [average] chance of each individual selection winning must be > 95.5%. I'll leave it to someone else to explain how one arrives at this exact figure. - Also, the use of the word "average" is not technically correct but the precise explanation would be extremely complex (translation: I might very possibly botch it [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]) * A 6 point teaser must feature two selections that each have an expected success rate greater than the square root of .5 (50%) to be +EV since this bet pays even money. The sq. root of .5 is ~ .7071 (sq root of 50% is 70.71%) Did this help ?
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#10
12-10-2005, 09:17 PM
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There are
several sites that offer this wager.
WWTS used to, and still may. 5dimes offers teasers from +6 to +21 and everything in between. (5, 5.56, 6.5, 7, . . . 9.5, 10 10.5 . . . 14, 15, 16, 17 . . . 21). The payoffs at 5dimes are about as good as any you'll find on the 'net. I don't play teasers so it's a moot point for me but if you do this is a good place to do so. They also have reverse teasers (aka "pleasers") where you GIVE 6, 6.5 or 7 points and get an inflated payoff rather than a reduced one. There the outcome of any event is less than 100% you'll find a line on it here. Division III football ? - Uh huh HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL ? - Uh huh * And they pay !
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