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#1
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turn: Ace hits and he keeps betting - shows he's not scared of that ace, no one here advocates a check-fold? I think you're behind here against a weak ace and have two outs. Either fold or c/r attempting to get him to fold.
river: I put him on an ace - based on your line, looks like a flush draw, so I think he will check behind. I say push hoping for a call |
#2
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[ QUOTE ]
turn: Ace hits and he keeps betting - shows he's not scared of that ace, no one here advocates a check-fold? I think you're behind here against a weak ace and have two outs. Either fold or c/r attempting to get him to fold. river: I put him on an ace - based on your line, looks like a flush draw, so I think he will check behind. I say push hoping for a call [/ QUOTE ] Wrong, that ace had an impact. He bets $25 into a huge pot here. He's either a) afraid that ace made hero's hand improve, or b) he's being tricky and hoping that hero wanted to checkraise....it's really a decision between those 2 things. The problem with raising is that it could be option b instead of option a, and if it is option a, we are ahead anyway and don't want to necessarily run him off. The only hand that villain could possibly have with option a that we want to fold is KK or f a flush draw. I didn't get to voice my opinion on the turn, but I favor a call I guess....hate to raise here and be faced with a push, but I also hate to give a cheap card to someone with a flush draw...however I offered him a free card and he charged himself $25 so I'm not sure he's drawing here...I think he might have flopped a set but because of our preflop reraise he thinks we have AAA. River - Given this action I'd probably go for the checkraise all in....I don't think he's got a flush. |
#3
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Here's my thoughts again on the hand as a whole, as well as results.
Preflop: Villain has shown in the past that he is willing to break tempo (i.e. the hand where I raised PF and he bet into me on the flop with air and kept betting, as well as some other hands where I raised flop and he bet the turn). This means that even if I do raise him here, he might try to take it away later postflop and since I'd like to play a large pot here (obviously flop dependent), I may as well start building it now. Flop: His raise could mean many things. He might put me on AK (or just big cards in general). He might also have a set, two pair, KK, AA, whatever. He could also just be testing the waters with a mediocre hand or even have pretty good equity against me. In any case, I think ~$30 going into this flop is the perfect amount for a turn checkraise all in, because the pot will be $80 and our stack $100 on the turn, meaning if he bets his normal 1/3-1/2 pot bet, he will have great odds to call with just about any legitamite hand he holds, a range of which I am way ahead. Turn: Ok, bad card to check raise all in. A lead here sort of sucks because if he does push all in I could be in a really rough spot. At this point I change my plan to a check/call because at this point I'm (a) not quite as far ahead of his hands and (b) less likely to get a call from a hand I'm behind if I do checkraise. Also, this villain really doesn't seem sofisticated enough to minraise flop and check behind on a draw (or at least I'm hoping he isn't). River: Dunno if this river helped or hurt but I'm obviously willing to get it all in at this point, because I beat anything but a flush or flopped straight (which I think is unlikely, this guy was raising with big cards mostly). At this point a check is fairly likely to induce a bluff from complete air or a value bet from hands that beat me, but I do believe he will check behind here with one or two pair and maybe even a smaller set (can't be sure there). I should have probably check/raising here, but ended up pushing. He called with A8o. |
#4
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i think check-raise all-in on the river is best
you are showing big ol weakness checking both turn/river, really looks like youre trying to get to showdown "cheap" by check-calling the whole way down as you said, villain has a tendency to bluff too, and not only that, he will def bet out with any A, 2-pair, set, etc., and the pot is so big no matter what he bets, he calls your check-raise i think if you push you let him off easy with a weaker pair |
#5
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[ QUOTE ]
Postflop he bets a lot, but doesn't often bet big. He will also bluff three streets no problem. [/ QUOTE ] As the play thus far is completely consistent with something on the order of A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] I don't feel too comfortable playing for my whole stack here. Unfortunately, based on what you have left, a reasonable bet from him puts you all-in, as well as any blocking bet commits you. If he bets a lot, and not big often, let him do his thing - especially if he can bluff three streets. If he doesn't have the flush, I don't see him calling a big bet from you - though I do find it odd he gave you odds to draw to one on the turn. Did he make that turn bet to price himself in? I think I check call. I don't see him calling with much you beat, but will bet more losing hands into you. |
#6
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I like a push here. If he raise flop with flush draw, he likely take a free card on turn unless he has Ax [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on a flush draw+TP combo on turn. But with those odds, you cannot fold set here if he pushes. On the other hand, he might very well check his ace especially if his kicker is small. A push is smaller than the potk, but it looks like a desperate bluff with air or flush and I expect he payoff with ace.
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#7
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I like a check here. If he has a strong Ace he is going to bet it hoping you make crying call (turn call indicates you probably would call a smallish bet). If he was bluffing the turn, he probably isn't going to pay you unless he bluffs again. And of course if he made his flush you don't want him putting you all in after you bet strong.
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#8
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I dont think we have a huge reason to believe villain has an ace. The ace killed our action on the turn, and villain only bet 1/3 pot. I think villains most likely holdings here are something like JJ or air, MAYBE a flush. If we lead then I think he folds everything but the flush. I dont see villain having two pair with something like A7, but I suppose he could have a set with 77. I think a good bit of the time here villain checks behind with a pair like 1010, but leading will get us no money.
I like check call, or even check raise all in, but I think if we c/r all in the only hand that pays us off is 77, and maybe a strangely played AQ or something. I think we should check this river to induce a bluff, as for raising a potential bet he makes... why? |
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