#1
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Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
[ QUOTE ]
If craps is your game of choice, or you have always wanted to give it a try then Tues 6 Dec - Sun 11 Dec are the dates to play! If the dice didn't roll in your favour during this time we'll refund you with 10% cashback on Mon 12 Dec 2005! [/ QUOTE ] Am I wrong to think this is +ev? |
#2
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Re: Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
If you bet $100 and lose $1.40 of that, you get .14 back. So, it's a 10% discount on the house edge.
So, yes. |
#3
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Re: Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
[ QUOTE ]
it's a 10% discount on the house edge. So, no. [/ QUOTE ] fyp? edit: bad reading comprehension, thought you meant "yes" to the +ev, not "yes" to me being wrong [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I'll leave my stupidity up there for all to see. |
#4
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Re: Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
Yes, because it's losses so it will still be -ev. If you lose that is.
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#5
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Re: Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
I'm pretty sure this can be +EV.
Let's say you make only one bet. Pass line for $100. Two possibilites. 48.6% of the time you win and have $200. (.486*200)=97.2 51.4% of the time you lose and have $10. (.514*10)=5.14 So, on average you will have (97.2+5.14)=$102.34 Of course, if you keep betting, the HA will quickly make this -EV. |
#6
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Re: Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
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Of course, if you keep betting, the HA will quickly make this -EV. [/ QUOTE ] If the HA isn't changing ... how can the EV of a bet change? |
#7
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Re: Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
Check this out. It's a bit confusing, but might help:
(i'm not sure about my +/- EV consideration anymore) wizard of odds calculations |
#8
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Re: Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Of course, if you keep betting, the HA will quickly make this -EV. [/ QUOTE ] If the HA isn't changing ... how can the EV of a bet change? [/ QUOTE ] The refund isn't on each bet, it's on the total loss. |
#9
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Re: Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
Are you people insane? This is huge +EV. Bet $100 on pass or something. (I have no idea how craps works.) If you win, you win $100, if you lose, you lose $90.
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#10
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Re: Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
[ QUOTE ]
Are you people insane? This is huge +EV. Bet $100 on pass or something. (I have no idea how craps works.) If you win, you win $100, if you lose, you lose $90. [/ QUOTE ] Bob, Please see my post where I rescinded my previous comments. |
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