BCS bowl lines are crazy

noggindoc · #1 12-06-2005, 02:59 PM

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With the speed edge gone from the Nittany Lion offense, I'm skeptical they will adjust well.[ QUOTE ]

What do you mean? Have you seen how fast the "other" receivers are? And the "speed edge" (if you mean Williams) has been gone since the Michigan game, didn't seem to hurt them in the games that followed.

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I think tOSU is awesome, but highly question the rest of the league.[ QUOTE ]

Did you see the PSU tOSU game?

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IMO, FSU played a much more difficult schedule.[ QUOTE ]

Maybe close, but certainly not "much more" difficult. And come on, they lost FOUR of those games.

MyTurn2Raise · #2 12-06-2005, 07:00 PM

My point is that Penn St only faced two decent defenses all year--scored 17 against Ohio St and 25 against Michigan. PSU had 78 yards passing and 126 rushing against tOSU. PSU had 239 yard passing and 184 rushing verse Michigan. Only 1 turnover in those two games combined by the Nittany Lions.

Since the Michigan game, the Nittany Lions played Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan State who are not exactly the fearsome foursome, especially on defense. PSU had a decided speed edge across all positions in the big10 for every game but the two mentioned above. That will disappear against the Noles. Will PSU adjust?

While tOSU defense is better than FSU IMO, they are not as fast nor as capable of making good teams turn the ball over. If PSU holds their turnovers down, they'll win. 2 or more turnovers and I see big problems covering.

The Big10 is very, very overrated. Look at the non-conference games played by each team. There is only one impressive win; Michigan State at Notre Dame. No other team had an impressive non-conference performance (unless you count Wisky @ North Carolina and Illinois v Rutgers) and some were downright unimpressive.

The fallacy is that when tOSU and Michigan are near the top of the conference, it's considered good. IMO, the big ten is the 4th best major conference this year. I came into the year with high hopes for the conference, but they just didn't materialize. The SEC, ACC, and Pac-10 were better, some by a wide margin.

holeplug · #3 12-06-2005, 07:23 PM

Turn I think your reading waaaaaaaaaaay too much into that Virginia Tech game. You watched the Clemson and Forida games right?

MyTurn2Raise · #4 12-06-2005, 08:02 PM

yep...and I bet against FSU in both those games due to the injuries to their defensive ends and pathetic offense. IIRC, Florida -4 verse FSU was a pick of the week by me.

FSU will have their defense back in full shape for this one and I really do think that little of every team in the Big10 except tOSU.

MyTurn2Raise · #5 12-06-2005, 09:19 PM

What I am often guilty of, and others may have noticed this, is a confirmation bias. If I come into a game with ideas, I'll weight the evidence that supports my theory more than those that disconfirm it.

For example, last week I did not weigh in the fact that UGA pummeled LSU last year and that the two teams had not changed much with this years rosters and playing styles. I saw it in researching the game, but pushed this information aside while blowing 300 on LSU. oh well....no one is perfect.

noggindoc · #6 12-07-2005, 10:42 AM

If you think tOSU is "awesome" and PSU handled them mid season, has a better record and better ranking, how does PSU not measure up? How can you think so highly of tOSU and not PSU, I'm guessing you didn't see that game and don't want to compare their seasons. I think you are discounting what PSU has done defensively as well. FSU has not faced a better defense with the possible exception of Miami. You make some valid points but are ignoring way too many others.

TomCollins · #7 12-07-2005, 12:41 PM

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If you think tOSU is "awesome" and PSU handled them mid season, has a better record and better ranking, how does PSU not measure up? How can you think so highly of tOSU and not PSU, I'm guessing you didn't see that game and don't want to compare their seasons. I think you are discounting what PSU has done defensively as well. FSU has not faced a better defense with the possible exception of Miami. You make some valid points but are ignoring way too many others.

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Who won that Miami - FSU game?

noggindoc · #8 12-07-2005, 02:01 PM

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If you think tOSU is "awesome" and PSU handled them mid season, has a better record and better ranking, how does PSU not measure up? How can you think so highly of tOSU and not PSU, I'm guessing you didn't see that game and don't want to compare their seasons. I think you are discounting what PSU has done defensively as well. FSU has not faced a better defense with the possible exception of Miami. You make some valid points but are ignoring way too many others.

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Who won that Miami - FSU game?

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Yup. 10-7. Tom I promise I wasn't downing tOSU by comparison. They are a hell of a team and I look forward to them pounding ND in the Fiesta.

TomCollins · #9 12-07-2005, 04:08 PM

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If you think tOSU is "awesome" and PSU handled them mid season, has a better record and better ranking, how does PSU not measure up? How can you think so highly of tOSU and not PSU, I'm guessing you didn't see that game and don't want to compare their seasons. I think you are discounting what PSU has done defensively as well. FSU has not faced a better defense with the possible exception of Miami. You make some valid points but are ignoring way too many others.

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Who won that Miami - FSU game?

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Yup. 10-7. Tom I promise I wasn't downing tOSU by comparison. They are a hell of a team and I look forward to them pounding ND in the Fiesta.

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I am a little nervous about the PSU game. Just because FSU is such an enigma. They get pumped up for good games and play reasonably well. Then other games, they just plain suck. PSU and OSU aren't significantly different in terms of talent IMHO, but something about FSU makes it so I wouldn't be surprised if they came out and played a great game.

As for Notre Dame, I don't expect a blowout, but I wouldn't mind being surprised. I think a lot of that game comes down to how well Troy Smith plays. Notre Dame's defense is a bit suspect, but not awful by any means.

MyTurn2Raise · #10 12-07-2005, 05:05 PM

oh yeah...I've been underestimating Penn St and fading them all year. This is nothing new. The team has made me eat crow a few times this year, the most memorable was before tOSU game where I said something like "Penn St is just like Ohio State. Their systems, schemes, and personnel are mirror images, except that Penn St is the JV version."

OK so I was very wrong. Stands to reason that I might be wrong again. I just am convinced that Penn St, and the great majority of Big10 teams, are no good this year. The one exception is tOSU, whose defense I absolutely love. If the coaches had discovered the Pittman running attack earlier and did some better play calling with Troy Smith, well...who knows?

I've said earlier, while I love the PSU D, I just cannot erase the last 5 years of PSU offense out of my brain. I just don't see national title type offense. I'm exhibiting an anchoring and adjustment error in my judgment and decision making. I know this, yet stand firmly behind it.