#11
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Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
I think he's holding the Ace of diamonds with something either a 2 or 7 (non-diamond). He saw a good opportunity to bluff holding the Ad, knowing you could not have the nuts. Still a little scary to push. I think I'd just call. If you push and he has you beat, that sucks.
Enjoy Life! |
#12
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Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
I think you guys are missing a lot of value not pushing in this spot.
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#13
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Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
I'm assuming that the 1.23 in the stats is the villian's aggression factor. 1.23 means a good amount of calling relative to betting. This may mean he calls too often or he is passive or both. I find some passive players check call with 2 pair or a set and then put a big bet on the river sometimes. I wouldn't rule out something he made earlier in the board than the river card. Given that he puts money in the pot preflop 73% preflop of the time he could have just about anything for two pair j7, j9, 79.
all possibilities for a flush: 36 ways you beat: 21 you lose to: 15 Of course some of the low hands he is not going to limp because he folds outright about 27% of the time preflop. As a rough estimate let's take out the bottom 27% of the flushes possible. 27% * 36 = ~10. And let's take out AsKs since he would probably raise preflop. so... you beat: 11 you lose to: 14 If you assumed he had the flush (read) you look to be a slight underdog to be winning. But if you think other hands are possible then this is worth at least a call. |
#14
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Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming that the 1.23 in the stats is the villain's aggression factor. 1.23 means a good amount of calling relative to betting. This may mean he calls too often or he is passive or both. [/ QUOTE ] Not sure this is true with a VPiP of 70+. It looks pretty aggressive to me, but I am not a mathematician. Perhaps someone will enlighten me. |
#15
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Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
i push. i think that someone who raises that much raises Axs most times, and i can just see so many smaller flushes playing this way along w/ whatever else a donk might have here and still call...
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#16
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Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
I think the aggression factor = bet+raise/call
So folds don't come into play and i don't think it matters how many hands you play. It only matters what the ratio between your betting and raising and your calling. |
#17
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Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
[ QUOTE ]
i push. [/ QUOTE ] Now that all the sensible TAG's are in MSNL, we are left with all the high variance maniac's down here in SSNL. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I still think a call is correct here. Pot is a boring $7.25 when the river card is dealt. I hit my hand and get $30 more out of villian, I am happy with that. I don't have the nuts, I don't have the second nuts. There's a nice chance Hero loses this hand. No sense in shelling out an extra $30 when you don't have too. Let me ask all the maniac pushers this question: If, instead of c/r'ing, Villian led into Hero for $30 on the river, how many of you would advocate pushing then? Most of you would probably be folding in that spot. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] |
#18
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Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
push and hope he doesn't show a better hand. I expect to win ~ 4/5 of the time. He could show a str8, some weird 2 pr, set, or baby flush.
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#19
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Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
Logically, I think I have to call, because I am good more than 50% of the time, and following that logic, wouldnt a push be correct, since he is not laying down two pair or better?
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