NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29

namknils · #1 12-01-2005, 12:35 PM

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Does Kansas apply tonight? I know Nevada is ranked in one poll and unranked in the other.

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I think I may have been misunderstanding this trend. Could someone please clarify for me?

A. When an unranked team is favored to beat a ranked team, always take the unranked team.

B. When an unranked team is playing a ranked team, always take the unranked team regardless of the line.

Are either of these two right? Does it have to do with the unranked team being at home at all?

NoChance · #2 12-01-2005, 12:56 PM

Here is the thread where I explained how it works:

Unranked vs Ranked

jedinite · #3 12-01-2005, 04:01 PM

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I think I may have been misunderstanding this trend. Could someone please clarify for me?

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To put it simply for those following along, the condition is:

Look for an unranked team playing at home who is favored to win over a ranked team.

What NoChance is saying in his thread, is that the "real" line for this unranked home favorite should be -5 and the heavy public money coming down on the side of their ranked underog opponent drives the line down to -2 or -3 and as such there is value on the opposite side of the line.

Per NoChance's thread, most people believe the exact condition is that the line opens with the unranked home team as a favorite, but some people will play if the line moves to favor the unranked home team even if they started as an underdog or a pick'em.

20Five · #4 12-01-2005, 08:33 PM

well we have some games upcoming on december third that might give us a play or two.. patience! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

#5 12-02-2005, 02:00 AM

I got a new system for you guys. How about we always take the better team that's also GETTING points when playing an overrated public team. It'll be a huge winner!

#6 12-02-2005, 02:06 AM

Shamu,

Remember to take the moneyline as well.

Yours in riches,
NhlNut

MCS · #7 12-02-2005, 02:26 AM

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I got a new system for you guys. How about we always take the better team that's also GETTING points when playing an overrated public team. It'll be a huge winner!

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Did it not occur to you that oftentimes the ranked team is themselves an overrated public team (e.g., Illinois)? And that maybe that's part of why the system works?

And that EVERY ranked-unranked game is going to look sketchy to people who believe more in their own gut than in math?

Congrats on the win if you took Illinois, but I really think UNC was the right side here. Indy, for example, took Illinois -2. That cannot possibly have been a good bet, but it won. People win sometimes at roulette too.

#8 12-02-2005, 03:24 AM

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I really think UNC was the right side here.

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Do you really believe this? I understand that it's important to not be results oriented. Many times you will make the "right" play and still lose. But many times you will also make the WRONG play and lose. And when that happens it's important to learn from it so you don't make the same mistake.
How can you honestly say that UNC was the right side? You're only fooling yourself. You watched the game right? You saw that Illinois was running away with the game until the refs decided to make it close by calling every ticky tack foul (that they weren't calling in the 1st half) on Illinois. And even with the help of the zebras, I dont think UNC ever had the lead in the second half. Let me repeat that: THE FAVORED TEAM NEVER LED IN THE SECOND HALF. And you still think you were on the right side? Cmon.

MCS · #9 12-03-2005, 05:55 PM

Alright, fine. A bunch of knowledgable and respected sports bettors on this board have disagreed with you. If I were you, that would be a signal that I was probably not understanding something. I think it is INCREDIBLY unlikely that they are all wrong in the same way on multiple occasions.

However, you are of course free to bet however you want, and you seem like a pretty nice guy. So good luck to you, except for when we are on opposite sides, which given our approaches, will probably be fairly frequent. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

#10 12-02-2005, 03:30 AM

Believe it or not, I'm a fan of this sytem. I like it because I like the reasoning behind it. So when the reasoning that the system uses is applicable to a particular matchup, I'll use the system's advice. But even the best system in the world won't make the right play every time. There are some games in the system where the reasoning doesn't apply. And when that happens you are only doing yourself a disservice if you blindly follow the system.