AQ top pair of Q, s/f draws on turn

[AKQJ10]

After a night's reflection, I think my best line is to mix up my play here. There aren't many Villain hands that fit this betting pattern that would make giving a free card dangerous -- maybe A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] freeroll, or A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or something like that. OTOH, allowing him to check knowing that I'll push is problematic -- occasionally I should punish him by checking behind. And of course, always checking then folding to a river bet is bad -- I'll always get bluffed off a hand. But there are so few plausible hands for him to stay in with that DIDN'T come in by the turn that I should mostly fold to a big river bet.

So on turn:

1/2 time bet pot (=push)
1/3 time check behind
1/6 time bet 1/2 pot (mostly fold if raised)