#1
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PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
Sorry I'm missing the full hand history, but here's the pokerhand equity comparison:
Flop - Kh 4c Tc Cards: 4s Ad Ah 8h scoop-313 HIwin-356 LOwin-27 EV-.423 3s 5c 2c 4h scoop-440 HIwin-464 LOwin-179 EV-.577 Without getting too much into the context of the hand, I raised PF in EP with the AAxx, got heads up vs LAG button, potted flop, and was put all in by LAG holding the wheel cards. When I ran the equity comparison, I was surprised to see how potent his hand was, considering there's only 1 low card on the flop - is his flush draw really that powerful? If I were the LAG button playing against the EP raiser (and pegged EP on AAxx), I probably wouldn't put him all-in in this spot since I'd never guess I'm almost 60/40 with only one low card on the board. Am I missing something here? |
#2
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Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
Off the cuff estimate. A little less than 40% equity is the flush draw, his runner/runner low has to be at least 7-10%, and he has 4 more outs than you to make a hand (2 pair) bigger than yours. That is another 15% or so, plus he has straight draws. What is killing your equity is that you have so few cards that will improve your hand.
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#3
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Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
I agree with mendacious. You are essentially looking for the board to pair for u 2 have ur high 2 pair. If I put someone on AA and dont think that they have the Ac or a flush draw then heads up this is worth-while to take. He has a ton of outs to improve and beat you. Side note: I dont like being the first one raising EP with AAxx, you're out of position and people can peg you on having AAxx, which is always a significant disadvantage.
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#4
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Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
EV isn't all that should be looked at when you're playing pot limit
despite equity, all the draws for hand #2 suck and it's never clear where you stand. that simulator can't take into account the # of times you get moved off your 5 high flush, among other things interesting post for limit O/8 maybe though |
#5
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Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
Trader - Very interesting.
I thought you must have copied something incorrectly and so I ran the same hands using Wilson. flop...Kh4cTc auto stop point...10000 deals hand.........high..low...scoop..total 4sAdAh8h...288...145...3812...4245 3s5c2c4h....145...288...5322...5755 Best high hands on river: hand.........4sAdAh8h......3s5c2c4h pair...........4026..........1542 two pair......3988..........3542 trips..........1213...........359 straight.........0...........460 flush...........435..........3839 full house.....327...........229 quads............11.............0 total.........10000.........10000 Winning high hands: hand.........4sAdAh8h......3s5c2c4h pair............845.............0 two pair......2285..........1273 trips...........485.............0 straight.........0...........403 flush...........435..........3672 full house.....327...........229 quads............11.............0 total..........4388..........5577 Losing high hands: hand.........4sAdAh8h......3s5c2c4h pair...........3181..........1542 two pair......1703..........2269 trips...........728...........359 straight.........0............51 flush.............0...........167 full house.......0.............0 quads.............0.............0 total..........5612..........4388 Looking it over, yes it was the baby flush draw that pushed 3s5c2c4h ahead of 4sAdAh8h in the high wins category. My ratio, using Wilson, is 5755/4245 = 1.356, not quite the same as 577/423 = 1.364, but close. I'd get a different ratio if I ran the same sim again using Wilson, because of the random deal way Wilson accumulates the data. Might be a bit higher than your ratio next time. Or if I made the auto stop point 100,000 instead of 10,000 the ratio would probably be closer to 1.364. Whatever. The power of the baby flush draw! At any rate, who'd have thunk it? [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] Buzz |
#6
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Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
I see the AAxx hand suited in hearts with an A-hi draw
I see the 2345 hand suited in clubs with a 5-hi draw Then i see the 5-hi flush winning in flushes way more often. something doesn't make sense to me here and why does the AA4x hand make 0 straights in 10,000 hands -- you are never ever dealt 2,3,5 by river? -g |
#7
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Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
[ QUOTE ]
I see the AAxx hand suited in hearts with an A-hi draw I see the 2345 hand suited in clubs with a 5-hi draw Then i see the 5-hi flush winning in flushes way more often. something doesn't make sense to me here and why does the AA4x hand make 0 straights in 10,000 hands -- you are never ever dealt 2,3,5 by river? -g [/ QUOTE ] The flop has already been specified: Kh4cTc. This is why the 5 high flush is winning so much more than the heart flush and it is impossible at this point for a 235 to end up on the board. |
#8
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Correction
Rats! Will I never stop making these stupid little errors?
I wrote Winning high hands: hand.........4sAdAh8h......3s5c2c4h pair............845.............0 two pair......2285..........1273 trips...........485.............0 straight.........0...........403 flush...........435..........3672 full house.....327...........229 quads............11.............0 total..........4388..........5577 Change that to Winning high hands: hand.........4sAdAh8h......3s5c2c4h pair............845.............0 two pair......2285..........1273 trips...........485.............0 straight.........0...........40<font color="red">9</font> flush...........435..........3672 full house.....327...........229 quads............11.............0 <font color="red">straight flush...0.............29</font> total..........4388..........<font color="red">5612</font> |
#9
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Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
[ QUOTE ]
something doesn't make sense to me here [/ QUOTE ] Greg - Good eyes. Thanks. I've corrected my error. Sorry. Buzz |
#10
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Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
What kind of equity does the 5 4 3 2 hand based off of the straight possibilities alone?
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