#11
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
AA is a close fold. KK is a very easy fold. Pocket horseshoes on the other hand, you're a [censored] if you fold those.
|
#12
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
[ QUOTE ]
even tho he is a very likely favourite to any of the SB's range of hands. [/ QUOTE ] You think [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]? |
#13
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
Why does it matter that it's the first hand? If it was the 10th or 100th hand of the WSOP main event would anyones answer change? (No)
|
#14
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
I raise. I don't care if we're both all in. I really like my hand.
|
#15
|
|||
|
|||
This is not as obvious as people seem to think
I think that people are answering this too quickly without giving it enough thought.
Suppose I am in the SB and Phil Ivey is the BB. Everyone folds to me. Ok, what am I thinking ? Well, firstly I’m sh!t scared of having to get involved in a hand with Phil Ivey. If we get to see a flop, then he’s definitely going to outplay me, and I’m going to lose chips, so the best EV decision for me is to fold. Even if I have KK or QQ, I’m going to fold, cos if I raise and he calls me, I’m in deep trouble after that because he’s got position, and well, because he’s Phil Ivey. Then I look at my hand – oh no, AA. Disaster ! What do I do ? I know, I’ll go all in. That way I cleverly negate his positional advantage. He can’t outplay me because I don’t have to think anymore. So, that’s what I do. All in. Ok, now look at it from Phil Ivey’s position. He has AA and the SB has gone all-in. Because he’s Phil Ivey, he reads the SB like an open book, and immediately draws the conclusion that the SB has AA too. So if Phil calls all-in, then 95.65% of the time, the pot is split. But 2.17% of the time Phil wins, and 2.17% of the time Phil loses. So Phil says to himself, “why take the chance of doubling up when there’s an equal chance of me being knocked out ? I’ll get lots of better opportunities later. So, I fold.” Result : Instant fold. |
#16
|
|||
|
|||
Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
[ QUOTE ]
I think that people are answering this too quickly without giving it enough thought. Suppose I am in the SB and Phil Ivey is the BB. Everyone folds to me. Ok, what am I thinking ? Well, firstly I’m sh!t scared of having to get involved in a hand with Phil Ivey. If we get to see a flop, then he’s definitely going to outplay me, and I’m going to lose chips, so the best EV decision for me is to fold. Even if I have KK or QQ, I’m going to fold, cos if I raise and he calls me, I’m in deep trouble after that because he’s got position, and well, because he’s Phil Ivey. Then I look at my hand – oh no, AA. Disaster ! What do I do ? I know, I’ll go all in. That way I cleverly negate his positional advantage. He can’t outplay me because I don’t have to think anymore. So, that’s what I do. All in. Ok, now look at it from Phil Ivey’s position. He has AA and the SB has gone all-in. Because he’s Phil Ivey, he reads the SB like an open book, and immediately draws the conclusion that the SB has AA too. So if Phil calls all-in, then 95.65% of the time, the pot is split. But 2.17% of the time Phil wins, and 2.17% of the time Phil loses. So Phil says to himself, “why take the chance of doubling up when there’s an equal chance of me being knocked out ? I’ll get lots of better opportunities later. So, I fold.” Result : Instant fold. [/ QUOTE ] This is wrong on so many levels. |
#17
|
|||
|
|||
Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
[ QUOTE ]
Because he’s Phil Ivey, he reads the SB like an open book, and immediately draws the conclusion that the SB has AA too. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Result : Instant fold. [/ QUOTE ] This is wrong. Do you see why? If you don't, I bolded why -- and by association, your reasoning for why the SB has AA and only AA is wrong as well. |
#18
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
Is God so powerfull that he can microwave a burrito so hot that he himself can't eat it?
Regards, Woodguy |
#19
|
|||
|
|||
Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
[ QUOTE ]
I think that people are answering this too quickly without giving it enough thought. Suppose I am in the SB and Phil Ivey is the BB. Everyone folds to me. Ok, what am I thinking ? Well, firstly I?m sh!t scared of having to get involved in a hand with Phil Ivey. If we get to see a flop, then he?s definitely going to outplay me, and I?m going to lose chips, so the best EV decision for me is to fold. [/ QUOTE ] If you're so afraid to play against Phil Ivey that you open-fold AA pre-flop, you probably shouldn't be playing in the WSOP in the first place. |
#20
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
[ QUOTE ]
AA is a close fold. KK is a very easy fold. Pocket horseshoes on the other hand, you're a [censored] if you fold those. [/ QUOTE ] Right... So when the guy flips over two purple magic wands you are screwed. Horseshoes is an instafold for me. |
|
|