Super Tuesday Final Table Hand vs. Chip Leader

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's my two cents.

Preflop against the chip leaders blind, esp. an aggressive one,
if I play this hand, which I probably would I open push. If you open raise conventionally he will call with a lot of hands and you'll whiff most times and it's easy for you to be outplayed from the flop.

Given the way you played the hand with his small flop bet I
either fold or I push. I don't like calling. It appears weak and with your chip stack if he has anything a turn bet will not move him. By pushing you have a fair amount of FE,
so take advantage of it.

Bruce

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the raise. What do you do if you are reraised? With 2 big stacks in the blinds, you are unlikely to steal the blinds with a small raise.

Preflop, a push is borderline with 12xBB no ante into 5 players. I think the push is probably slightly chip EV+. I wouldn't necessarily fold preflop. Pushing or limping may be better, but I don't like the raise.

When the tournament leader calls in the BB and makes a weak lead, easy push. He might play that way with anything. You are getting 1.7-1 pot odds and you are a 2.3-1 dog to a pair. You probably have a lot of folding equity, so push.

I don't think flat calling is that bad. Villain made a small bet, so you can call and draw to your 7 outs, 4 of them nut outs. I wouldn't fold.

[Lloyd]

This obviously was a tough hand, not only because it knocked me out but because I just didn't know what to do with it at any stage. 8-handed, essentially in middle position I thought it was pretty weak to fold especially given that I hadn't played too many hands and my raise has to mean something.

On the flop, I figured he had anywhere from two pair (QJ) to a middle pair to a draw to a complete bluff. I went in the tank and pushed figuring my Ace was possibly live plus the 4 outs to Broadway. Afterwards I figured that he'd have to fold at least 30% of the time to make a push worthwhile given that I was probably at best a 3 to 1 dog if called.

He called me with JT. I was a bit surprised by that. It was an insta-call in fact. Yeah, he was the chip leader but I still had enough chips to damage his stack. As one poster said, I did go into the tank and wondered how that was perceived. But for me, even if I had an overpair I'd pause and think about for a little bit before committing all my chips against such a funny bet. I think he took my hesitation as weakness (rightfully so, of course). So it was either a great read or a horrible play by him - funny how a lot of situations end up that way. Just like someone playing a hand in such a way that they have absolutely nothing or the nuts.

I wasn't on tilt during this hand as I had actually gone from about 18k in chips to over 100k in the span of about 20 hands taking advantage of a lot of tight play at my table when down to 20 players. But it was late in the evening and I think me being up for quite awhile impacted my decision. In hindsight I think this was a fold pre-flop because of the shorter stacks who could bust and move me up in the money, and the bigger stacks in the blind who could bust me. Tommy Angelo talks about "tiltless poker" and this is an example - I should have done things to increase the liklihood that I was sharp and focused on the decisions at hand.

[betgo]

You were a 7-3 dog not a 3-1 dog. The push was fine. You had pot odds and FE.

Rather than saying I have ATo I can't fold it, you should be looking at whether the hand is useful to you in this situation. I play a lot of supersatllites and I fold good hands and push with junk all the time.

Raising 2.75xBB into the big stacks' blinds seems strange. Did you consider pusing or limping?

12xBB is a difficult stack to play without antes. Also, I don't mind playing a little tight and move up while some shorter stacks bust.

I don't think ATo is that great a hand that I mind folding it that much. Pushing preflop may be slightly chip EV+, but I would fold and wait for a better opportunity.

[bruce]

I agree with you 100%, this is a tough hand to play. AT
is about as difficult with your stack to play as a medium
pocket pair.

After reading all the responses perhaps the best play is not to play the hand to begin with. If I had a hand like pocket Sixes or Sevens I would probably pass. However, I still think if you're going to play the hand the most effective way is with a push. With the villians large stack I don't think your raise has much of a chance of taking down the blinds. If you pushed you probably would have lost any way so it wouldn't have made any difference
anyway.

Bruce

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with you 100%, this is a tough hand to play. AT
is about as difficult with your stack to play as a medium
pocket pair.

After reading all the responses perhaps the best play is not to play the hand to begin with. If I had a hand like pocket Sixes or Sevens I would probably pass. However, I still think if you're going to play the hand the most effective way is with a push. With the villians large stack I don't think your raise has much of a chance of taking down the blinds. If you pushed you probably would have lost any way so it wouldn't have made any difference
anyway.

Bruce

[/ QUOTE ]

In this case, if you pushed, JT would definately have folded in the BB. That is very results oriented.

I agree that pushing or folding preflop was best here. However, I don't think the push is chip EV+. You are pushing into 5 players. There is about a 25% chance someone has you dominated, in which case you lose an average of 5xBB. Say you pick up the blinds the other 75% of the time and gain 1.5xBB. On average, you lose .05xBB. I may be a little off, but it is pretty close to an even gamble. The problem with pushing with AT is you get called pretty much if and only if you are dominated.

I don't think you want to gamble here. Picking up some blinds or doubling up are not particularly advantageous. Maybe let some short stacks bust out. This also goes into my "retarded" red zone theory. Maybe, it's OK to fall into the red zone where you can play more aggressively.

I am not saying just folding to move up in prizes or throw away chips to move into the red zone, but why gamble here?

Now you mention a medium pp. Pushing any pair 22-TT here is chip EV+. It is much less likely that anyone has a higher pair and you are ahead plus pot odds against AK-AQ. If you push with 22, you are unlikely to be called by 55. You have plenty of odds to push with a pp. I might fold a small pp, even though it is slightly chip EV+. I think this is a situation where you do not particularly want to make a big gamble.

I am definately pushing with 77-TT. JJ is too good to push with. I would push with 22 if it was a strategic situation where I wanted to gamble. Pushing with 22 is clearly better than pushing with ATo.

Part of the lesson here is that you just have to learn to throw away a decent hand when it doesn't help you. For example, I have improved my game by folding small pairs and AJo, KQo in early position sometimes. I used to always just limp with them. Sometimes you can represent a big hand by raising or limping with a hand like that, but in a lot of situations you are better off folding.

[bruce]

I agree with you. Folding is probably the best play.

Funny though, with a medium pocket pair my reflex usually is to fold. If I push with say, 77, and am called I'm almost always against overs or I'm dominated. If I push with AT and I'm called I may not be in great shape, but
when I'm dominated I'm in better shape.

Bruce

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with you. Folding is probably the best play.

Funny though, with a medium pocket pair my reflex usually is to fold. If I push with say, 77, and am called I'm almost always against overs or I'm dominated. If I push with AT and I'm called I may not be in great shape, but
when I'm dominated I'm in better shape.

Bruce

[/ QUOTE ]
You have the odds to push with 77. A lot times you are called and ahead against AK or something. AT is likely to be a 3-1 or 703 dog if dominated, whereas 77 is a 4-1 dog. Pushing UTG with 8xBB and 77 is OK, so this is also OK. It kind of depends if youu want to gamble. You remember the times when it doesn't work. As I siad, I probably would fold 77 too here, because this is a situation where I am not looking to gamble.