#11
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Re: Marginal EV situations for a lot of chips, and some theory discuss
.70 * $EV of 7 big blinds
+ .30 * $EV of 32 big blinds > or < $EV of 15 big blinds. If chips decrease in value as you get them like you said, then even if it was marginally +cEV then it would be better to fold. Unless winning the hand will put you in an amazing situation (30BB doesnt qualify, i dont think) i'm goign to pretty much never knowingly take a -cEV situation. -- |
#12
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Re: Marginal EV situations for a lot of chips, and some theory discuss
So assuming you were faced with the same situation (you have already put in the first raise)
Are you calling the reraise? What if he had 1000 more, or 2000? Is cEV+ the breaking point for you? Also, if for some reason, we calculate that it's exactly even cEV wise, do you fold? |
#13
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Re: Marginal EV situations for a lot of chips, and some theory discuss
[ QUOTE ]
we calculate that it's exactly even cEV wise, do you fold? [/ QUOTE ] yes. at this point i think cEV and EV seperate quite a bit, and not in the way you're suggesting. You're saying that you're willing to take a marginally -cEV play.. i'm saying i'm willing to pass up a marginally +cEV one. |
#14
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Re: Marginal EV situations for a lot of chips, and some theory discussion
Intuitively, 7BB about to become 5.5 BB’s feels significantly worse than its actual chip value. Especially since I’m going to want to play within the next orbit to avoid going to 4BB. I think you’ve made a significant drop in fold equity if you end up here.
Whereas 55k does not feel an equivalent amount better than 30k, given that there is already a 78k stack, and several 38k stacks. The 38k stacks can still play deep with you and know that they can cripple you if they stack you, so I think you don’t really clear a big plateau in terms of fold equity. -g |
#15
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Re: Marginal EV situations for a lot of chips, and some theory discussion
I would like to know what the avg. stack for the tournament is right now. If its like the rebuy tourneys i play, isnt the avg gonna be around 50-75k on the bubble? If this is the case, then I definitely take the gamble. If folding leaves you with between 75 to 80% of what the avg. stack is for the entire tourney, then I think folding is a better option. This may be just my confort zone, but I believe if you are left with less than 75% of avg. stack, then its an auto call. If you are left with more than 80%, then auto fold. This all relates to chips being less valuable the bigger your stack is. And I believe that this concept isn't solely with relation to size of blinds or your M, but also the avg. stack for the entire field.
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