Death Penalty Article

[AtticusFinch]

All I have to say about this is if you want to get an idea about how widespread ignorance and misunderstanding of basic probability theory is, just check out the Monty Hall Dilemma. I'm constantly shocked at how few people get this one right. In fact, in one study, a majority of math professors answered incorrectly.

And yet, it's one of the simplest applications of Bayes' Theorem out there.

As an attorney, I can tell you that most judges' understanding is positively laughable, and they usually have a much better grasp than legislators who actually draft these policies.

Oh, and the so-called "expert witnesses" judges bring in to help them grasp statistical arguments are usually full of crap as well. It's a sad state, really.

[Xhad]

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All I have to say about this is if you want to get an idea about how widespread ignorance and misunderstanding of basic probability theory is, just check out the Monty Hall Dilemma. I'm constantly shocked at how few people get this one right. In fact, in one study, a majority of math professors answered incorrectly.

And yet, it's one of the simplest applications of Bayes' Theorem out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is just gross. I read most of the "solutions" here and I'm still shaking my head on how people can construct such elaborate yet blatantly wrong explanations.

EDIT: OK, wow, now I'm starting to doubt myself. WTF, if switching is correct I don't know how many things I must have wrong.

[AtticusFinch]

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EDIT: OK, wow, now I'm starting to doubt myself. WTF, if switching is correct I don't know how many things I must have wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, switching is correct. Don't feel bad. Like I said, even most math professors get it wrong. But consider that if so few can get this very simple problem right, how endemic misuse of statistics is in more complex situations.

[Xhad]

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EDIT: OK, wow, now I'm starting to doubt myself. WTF, if switching is correct I don't know how many things I must have wrong.

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Yep, switching is correct. Don't feel bad. Like I said, even most math professors get it wrong. But consider that if so few can get this very simple problem right, how endemic misuse of statistics is in more complex situations.

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I finally caught my error like 10 minutes later. And then I realized that my initial statement holds no matter which answer is correct because there were a lot of elaborate explanations on both sides. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[chezlaw]

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EDIT: OK, wow, now I'm starting to doubt myself. WTF, if switching is correct I don't know how many things I must have wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, switching is correct. Don't feel bad. Like I said, even most math professors get it wrong. But consider that if so few can get this very simple problem right, how endemic misuse of statistics is in more complex situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

I finally caught my error like 10 minutes later. And then I realized that my initial statement holds no matter which answer is correct because there were a lot of elaborate explanations on both sides. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Its a toughie. I interviewed 20+ candidates for a job once (all with good degrees in science/maths). I gave them all the MH problem and asked for the answer and the reason. Only one got the right answer for the right reason.

All but two got the answer wrong.

chez