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#11
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You can't count what you don't know, so that's why you use 9/47. Obviously, if you know a club is burned you can adjust your probability to 8/46.
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#12
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Here's a simpler example. I randomly give you one card out of a full deck. The probability that that card is the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is 1/52 right?
Now what if I deal myself five cards, then deal you a card. The probability that the card I give you will be the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is still 1/52 because you don't know what my cards are, so you're still randomly getting one card out of 52. Get it? |
#13
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yeah i get that part. but when we count outs we don't factor in the amount of total cards left in the deck. that's why i'm saying it should be 6 outs, giving us 25% equity, not 9 outs giving us 35% equity. [/ QUOTE ] The odds -> equity tables assume you are using the standard way of counting outs, ie treating all other player's cards as "unknowns". |
#14
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well, i guess so.. still seems strange to me though.
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#15
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yeah but you still have to assume there are no clubs it seems.. i mean i get what the other poster said but it still seems odd.
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#16
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yeah but you still have to assume there are no clubs it seems.. i mean i get what the other poster said but it still seems odd. [/ QUOTE ] No you don't. The part you're not getting is that when you say "I have 9 outs on the river out of 46 cards," that is counting the cards in the other players' hands. If you were assuming no one else was dealt a club, or that none of the burn cards were clubs either, then you would have 9 outs out of 25 cards (assuming a 10-handed game). Going back to my single-deck game example, if I deal the cards to myself face-down, then your probability of drawing the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is still 1/52 from your point of view. If I show you the five cards and none is the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], your odds have improved to 1/47. If I show you the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] from my pile, then obviously your odds of drawing it have decreased to zero. |
#17
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ok, i think i get it now. just seemed counterintuitive initially. thanks.
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#18
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If we follow your logic, we shouldn't count any card that has no chance of being dealt to us.
You're thinking that it's impossible to dealt a card that one of your opponent has. That's true, but it's just as impossible to dealt a card that's below the river. (cheating not withstanding) |
#19
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i already said i got it, why are you posting this?
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