HU SNG theory question 1

[Mr_Oog]

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I personally think its retarded to call knowing the play is -CEV.


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What about $EV?

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In a HU freezeout, CEV = $EV.

The Shadow

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Not strictly true.

Assume BB = 3000

If I have 10 chip and you have 2990 you will not win this tourney 2990/3000 times.

In order for me to win I will need to be dealt the winning hand 9 times in a row
20 (1)
40 (2)
80 (3)
160 (4)
320 (5)
640 (6)
1280 (7)
2560 (8)
WIN (9)

I will win 1 in 512 times, or 6 times out of 3000 not 10.

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Your example is incorrect as after winning 8 hands in a row you can now lose a hand and then still win the tournament. I am not certain how to calculate the probability of victory from that point off the top of my head.

But this is minutae and most likely unimportant as I agree with Irie.

-Mike