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  #1  
Old 11-07-2005, 06:51 PM
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Default Re: Can this be Aces?

Well there are two thoughts that occur to me. First is that although villain's aggression is only 1.4, his VPIP is 91%, so he actually plays pretty aggressively, right? Does anyone know how a 1.4 AF on a 91% VPIP equates to an AF for a 25% VPIP player?

Two, it's definitely not monsters under the bed to think aces here. He doesn't think you're going to fold and he's still raising, which means he thinks he's got you beat. So I don't think calling down is too weak. I guess AK is possible, but my guess is AA is more likely.

Unless he's really terrible instead of just really loose...
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  #2  
Old 11-07-2005, 06:54 PM
Stealthy Stealthy is offline
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Default Re: Can this be Aces?

I will post the results now as it is my bed time! 10.50pm here and I have work at 6.30. I called the river only and missed out on at least 1 more bet. SB had AJ for a pair of aces and Mr LAG from MP had 3 bet pre-flop with J9 clubs and was on a rather expensive draw!

I had taken so many beats today and run into so many real monsters that I ended up playing this far too timid and cost myself at least 3 BB (2 on turn and 1 on river). Much as I try I still let bad runs of cards affect my subsequent play.

Well at least I won this one!
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  #3  
Old 11-07-2005, 09:22 PM
HouseCalls HouseCalls is offline
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Default Re: Can this be Aces?

Preflop - Calling raise with 88 with only one other in pot is a little scary unless you are pretty confident that blinds will come in.

Flop - Seems like MP3 could have several hands here espescially AK or A high kicker and the action would be the same. So you may well be ahead. If MP3 has AA then you only have about 2.5 outs (the remaining 8 plus 1.5 outs for the backdoor flush). At 2.5 outs your odds of drawing out are 17.4/1 When its raised back to you the pot odds are 25/1 so calling here has a small positive EV. Cappng is not for value unless you are sure you are ahead and seems unlikely to fold people in this large pot so I think calling the flop reraise is best.

Turn & River - In both cases you are either way ahead (if MP3 does not have AA) or way behind. If you are behind you have only 1 out to beat AA. In a pot this big though I think you have to keep playing unless you are 100% sure you are beaten which you can't be given the range of possible hands out against you. Also given the size of the pot betting and/or is unlikely to chase anyone off so I would check and call down on both streets.

Just Grunching...
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  #4  
Old 11-08-2005, 02:40 AM
TomBrooks TomBrooks is offline
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Default Re: Can this be Aces?

Cap the flop to charge SB to hang around with whatever draw he's on. Take a free card on the turn if you can get it. The only other card that probably beats you if you're not drawing to 1 out already just came in. Call a river bet and get shown AA or KK. Homie don't mess with no limp reraisers.

On the other hand, this guy raises so much, he might be LRR'ing light, so popping this guy on the turn might be OK. Hard to say without knowing what he LRRs with.
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