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#1
10-27-2005, 05:16 AM
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Re: What are the odds on this: 3 sets and a str8 on the flop.
[ QUOTE ]
Ouch, my eyes exploded. Please format it better. [/ QUOTE ] I'll do it for him. ..Blah Blah, Poker is rigged, blah, blah, I got bad beat, blah, blah, I am an idiot, blah, blah... 
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#2
10-27-2005, 01:37 PM
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Re: What are the odds on this: 3 sets and a str8 on the flop.
For the record, if this is an actual hand (and I'm not necessarily convinced that it is), this is pretty incredible. Three players flop a set and and a 4th player flops the nut straight, with one player hitting quads on the end. If you were going to rig a hand, that's about as beautiful as it gets. :-)
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#3
11-02-2005, 12:53 AM
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Re: What are the odds on this: 3 sets and a str8 on the flop.
[ QUOTE ]
For the record, if this is an actual hand (and I'm not necessarily convinced that it is), this is pretty incredible. Three players flop a set and and a 4th player flops the nut straight, with one player hitting quads on the end. If you were going to rig a hand, that's about as beautiful as it gets. :-) [/ QUOTE ] It is a actual hand. No lie! Do you think I could actually type all of that mess. Why would I do it? Just for fun? That is a copy and paste of a actual hand. No lie!
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#4
11-02-2005, 08:54 AM
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Re: What are the odds on this: 3 sets and a str8 on the flop.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] For the record, if this is an actual hand (and I'm not necessarily convinced that it is), this is pretty incredible. Three players flop a set and and a 4th player flops the nut straight, with one player hitting quads on the end. If you were going to rig a hand, that's about as beautiful as it gets. :-) [/ QUOTE ] It is a actual hand. No lie! Do you think I could actually type all of that mess. Why would I do it? Just for fun? That is a copy and paste of a actual hand. No lie! [/ QUOTE ] If you want your question answered, post this in the probability forum. If you're looking for sympathy, please go elsewhere.
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#5
11-02-2005, 09:24 PM
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Re: What are the odds on this: 3 sets and a str8 on the flop.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] For the record, if this is an actual hand (and I'm not necessarily convinced that it is), this is pretty incredible. Three players flop a set and and a 4th player flops the nut straight, with one player hitting quads on the end. If you were going to rig a hand, that's about as beautiful as it gets. :-) [/ QUOTE ] It is a actual hand. No lie! Do you think I could actually type all of that mess. Why would I do it? Just for fun? That is a copy and paste of a actual hand. No lie! [/ QUOTE ] If you want your question answered, post this in the probability forum. If you're looking for sympathy, please go elsewhere. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks for the guidiance.
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#6
11-10-2005, 05:28 AM
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Or you could look
for sympathy in the dictionary.
It can be just after sh1t and just before syphilis. :-)
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#7
11-10-2005, 05:20 AM
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Re: What are the odds on this: 3 sets and a str8 on the flop.
If we start with the assumption that all the hands necessary for this to happen were in fact dealt out (and were played) . . .
The odds against AA, KK and QQ all flopping sets while JT flops a straight are calculated in the following manner: There are 8 ways of flopping A-K-Q. (2 Aces x 2 Kings x 2 Queens). There are 13,244 (44! / 6!) possible flops. The odds against this occuring are therefore 13,244 divided by 8 . . . Or, 1: 1,655.5 * If instead of AA, KK and QQ the three pairs were TT, 99 and 88 it would theoretically be a bit easier since there are two "straight draws" that would get there . . . Q-J and 6-7 However, since the question specified three sets plus the NUT straight, the above answer applies. If we further assume that this does in fact occur, the chance that the lowest set - QQ in my example - quads up while NEITHER OF THE OTHER PPs QUAD UP is 1: 38. Thus the chance of these unlikely events all occurring in the same hand is . . . 1: 62,909 * Bottom line is it's not going to happen often. * Also, remember that this figure assumes that these hands were in fact dealt out. If we instead wish to calculate the chances that: 1. AA, KK, QQ and JT are all dealt out 2. The flop is A-K-Q 3. The river is a Queen 4. The turn is neither an Ace nor a King Wow, I am tired and will leave it to one of our human calculators to do that equation but it is well into the > million to one range. That said, I posted some time back about the average person's tendency to confuse the UNUSUAL with the UNLIKELY. A royal flush is both but an A-K-9-5-2 flush is only the latter. It is precisely as UNLIKELY as the royal but far less memorable. In other words, based solely on the fact that it did indeed occur, it's extremely unlikely that "the fix was in". * FWIW, I was on the lowest end of set/set/set and did quad up; this was in a [live] 6-12 some 7 yrs ago. This was the only time I have been involved in a hand where 3 sets were flopped tho I have been in countless hands where the turn or river produced the 3rd set in a pot where 2 sets were flopped. I have been on the wrong end of set/set and quaded or flushed several times - and have had it happen to me several times. "Sh!t happens - usualy to me". [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] * P.S. In a hand where there are three sets giong into the river [which pairs the board] and the showdown features all 3 PLUS a straight or flush . . . well, what can I say. Win or lose you are in a great game; the river almost definitely was capped and yet the straight (or flush) hung on till the bitter end. If that straigh or flush was not the nuts on the turn, well . . . superwow. It doesn't get much better than this.
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