Stars 15/30 - ATs

[Nick Royale]

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Every hand that beats us - any jack, any eight, AA-QQ, TT, and 99 - all of them raise either the flop or the turn.

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Good point. But since we're practically readless I think he's much more likely to have played a hand like TT/99/77 passive or slowplayed Jx/AA/KK (these hands shouldn't be too afraid of giving freecards), than he is betting A-high on the river since he know you'll check/call with an A. Otoh you stand to gain ~4BB by raising and get A-high to fold, but only lose 1BB if he actually has a hand that beat you.


A quick calc:
I assume he hold a better hand than yours when he betsthe river 75% of the time (TT/99 etc.). I assume he'll fold A-high 75% of the time, but always call with a hand that beats you.

Check/call:
EV: 0.5*7.5*0.25 - 1*0.75 = 0.18BB

Check/raise:
EV: 7.5*0.25*0.75 - 2*0.75 + 8.5*0.25*0.5*0.25 - 2*0.75 = 0.17BB


I think the chance of getting him to fold TT/99 makes the check/raise better, even if he does it very infrequently it will swing the cals by alot. I don't play 15/30 so please give me some feedback on my assumptions. And if I messed up the calcs somewhere. Reading your last post I think you believe he'll hold A-high more often on this river than 25%, but since I can't see that hand betting this river I'm not so sure. Bet/folding this river with A-high would really suck IMO (EDIT: villain bet/folding). Could agree he'll fold A-high more often than 75% if he bets the river though.

[WillMagic]

Here's my take.

He could have made one of two mistakes on this hand. He could have slowplayed Jx/AA/KK/what have you on the flop and turn - a passive mistake. Or, he could have bet the river with Ace-high - an aggressive mistake. I postulate that the average 15/30 player is more likely to make the latter mistake than the former. He might think that on the river, when I check, that he was guaranteed at least a split and he might get me to fold an ace. Who knows. Bad play, for sure, but quite possible.

But whatever. We are talking about two rare events, and our judgments of the actual probabilities are going to be off. I do think that 75% for having me beat as opposed to having ace-high is too high.

Will

[Nick Royale]

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He could have made one of two mistakes on this hand. He could have slowplayed Jx/AA/KK/what have you on the flop and turn - a passive mistake. Or, he could have bet the river with Ace-high - an aggressive mistake. I postulate that the average 15/30 player is more likely to make the latter mistake than the former.

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Another good point. Well played.