Value betting the river

[Staycool]

I agree that this is a pretty good spot for a value bet, but there's something about this logic that I find a bit confusing. Say Villain has KQc or 78c, or even JJ, hands which hit the river big. If villain open pushes the river, is hero always going to make a call getting 3:1? (I think I find a fold versus certain villains, though we have no read here.) On the other hand, if villain knows that everyone value bets their overpairs in spots like this, then checking the river seems like a +EV play, since it'll ensure that the money gets in after the check-raise. (It also gives hero a chance to bluff his missed draws, the times he has a hand like AKd.)

I'm a winner in the 1/2 game and I never have any of those T type hands op mentioned...you may get a crying call from TJ or JQ though.

[mgsimpleton]

first of all if he has those hands,especially the gut shot, good for him. it's far more likely he hit top pair or made a worse two pair on the river or maybe even will call with a T if he is truly bad.

you are not considering stack sizes in this response - c/r on river does not make sense when villain has less than pot left in his stack... that's why i say it's an autobet. if we were deep then while i'm probably still betting, a case could be made for checking. and in that case oyu have to worry to bet enough to seem strong while folding to a c/r. here none of that matters since villain has no money left. just put him in and be done with it.

think about hand ranges, not only the few hands he could have that are beating us. his hand range is large and we are crushing most of it, so stick the money in and stop playing scared poker.