#11
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Re: Post-Skins Party 30-60
[ QUOTE ]
bigbab is running sickly lately.... i cant figure out why that guy hates money so much. [/ QUOTE ] he is my #1 donator. thanks big babs [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] |
#12
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Re: Post-Skins Party 30-60
OK I play 15/30 but I also am on the worst downswing I've seen since the switch.
- Almost 200 BB in the las tweek. This is after winning 400 Big bets last month Can these numbers even be possible? (This is all hands this year) Empire: 45,319 hands +$42,912 Party Poker 5,071 hands -$8,775 WOW |
#13
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Re: Post-Skins Party 30-60
[ QUOTE ] Can these numbers even be possible? (This is all hands this year) Empire: 45,319 hands +$42,912 Party Poker 5,071 hands -$8,775 WOW [/ QUOTE ] um losing 9k over 5000 hands is really meaningless.. its all thanks to our good friend called variance |
#14
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Re: Post-Skins Party 30-60
I had a big downswing when party cut back on the 30/60 tables. I still am not certain if I was beating that new game. I'd wait for 50k hands before making any determination.
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#15
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Re: Post-Skins Party 30-60
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Can these numbers even be possible? (This is all hands this year) Empire: 45,319 hands +$42,912 Party Poker 5,071 hands -$8,775 WOW [/ QUOTE ] um losing 9k over 5000 hands is really meaningless.. its all thanks to our good friend called variance [/ QUOTE ] At what point is it meaningfull then? If that's meaningless how can you say 'anyone' in a good or bad player. Especially in the pre-internet days. Any measurement for your variance? I show I'm a 2.9 BB / 100 with a Variance of 3.54 per hand. (Based on sound statistics) OK I get 3.28% chance of this. Impossible to run this bad? No. Coincidental that it happened at the EXACT same time Party got rid of skins? I don't know. Meaningless - I don't think so. |
#16
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Re: Post-Skins Party 30-60
3.28% is alot when you are repeating an action over and over
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#17
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Re: Post-Skins Party 30-60
[ QUOTE ]
I show I'm a 2.9 BB / 100 with a Variance of 3.54 per hand. (Based on sound statistics) OK I get 3.28% chance of this. [/ QUOTE ] You only have 45k hands to determine you are a 2.9/100 player? I would guess you were running good, and actually win less. The chances of your downswing will probably later prove to have been considerably higher. |
#18
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Re: Post-Skins Party 30-60
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I show I'm a 2.9 BB / 100 with a Variance of 3.54 per hand. (Based on sound statistics) OK I get 3.28% chance of this. [/ QUOTE ] You only have 45k hands to determine you are a 2.9/100 player? I would guess you were running good, and actually win less. The chances of your downswing will probably later prove to have been considerably higher. [/ QUOTE ] Why would you assume that? I see alot of people here talk about stats. Just curious what the backup is for that? (i.e. any statistical reasoning or just 'gut' feeling) I should add I can tell when AA is getting cracked by runner runner over and over again that I am running bad. |
#19
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Re: Post-Skins Party 30-60
Here's a little worthless anecdotal evidence, but it should demonstrate a point.
First 50K+ hands at 20/40 and 30/60, 3.7bb/100. Next 17K hands -1.5bb/100. VARIANCE, never underestimate, never. |
#20
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Re: Post-Skins Party 30-60
Why would I assume which part?
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