5/10 Blinds Battle - Good/Bad Call?

[Big_Jim]

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Gross?

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Gross.

First, you call about 1/10 of effective stack size with 22. This is marginal, assuming you're playing for set equity.

Now you call an all in overbet of $470 on a $100 pot.

You're getting about 1.2:1 on this call.

Let's run some numbers.

Hands that are ahead:
Overpair that's not AA, 66 or 77 : 62:38 36 combos
AA, 66, 77 : 77:23 18 combos
Set : 75:25 9 combos
46s, 56s : 75:25 6 combos
Let's assume he never pushes with the made straight.

This averages to about 70:30 or 2.33:1

Hands that are behind:
Any two overcards that don't affect the straight: 77:23
Two overcards with an A : 80:20
Two overcards with a 6 : 66:34

Obviously, there are a buttload of combinations here. Let's say this averages to about 75:25. or 3:1.


SO......
When we are behind, we're about a 2.33:1 dog.
When we're ahead, we're about a 3:1 favorite.

If we fold, our EV is 0.

If we call, and are ahead:
$570 * 75 - $470 * 25 = 31000/100 = $310/hand

If we call and are behind:
$570 * 30 - $470 * 70 = -15800/100 = -$158/hand

Let X = probability that opponent has a worse hand than ours.

X*$310 = (1-X)*$158
310X = 158 - 158X
468X = 158
X = 158/468 = 33.7% / 1.2 (for pot odds) = ~28%

So.... your villian must be bluffing in this spot 28% of the time for this call to be correct.

I don't see most people bluffing nearly this often.

Besides, I think that this part of your read
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SB hasn't done anything remarkable

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Should send you screaming for the hills.