#1
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Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
At a $1 ticket, approx 1:140million odds of winning, and a $340 million grand prize it seems like it should be. Am I missing something here because I dont really think it is...
Heres the odds of winning: http://powerball.com/powerball/pb_prizes.asp |
#2
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Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
Yap. You are missing Federal, State, and Local taxes. You are also missing the fact that you don't get $340 million. You get a twenty year annuity with a present value that is worth far less, or a big discounted lump sum (minus the previously mentioned Federal, State, and Local taxes). You are also not factoring in the small chance of someone else winning and splitting the prize.
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#3
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Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
It's not +EV, but you should play anyway because you want to.
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#4
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Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
Current Jackpot:
$ 340 Million $ 164.4 Million Cash Value If the cash value is 164.4 million doesnt that make it +ev??? F it im playing but I still wanna know the answer. |
#5
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Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
[ QUOTE ]
$ 340 Million $ 164.4 Million Cash Value If the cash value is 164.4 million doesnt that make it +ev??? F it im playing but I still wanna know the answer. [/ QUOTE ] You're playing with tax free dollars, calculate your winning in tax free dollars. 164.4MM * .6 = 98.64MM if you're the only winner. |
#6
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Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
[ QUOTE ]
F it im playing but I still wanna know the answer. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I knew that, which is why I wrote my post the way I did. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] It's still significantly -EV because of (1) taxes and (2) the nontrivial chance of splitting the top prize even if you win. cardcounter0 explained this already. |
#7
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Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
$ 164.4 Million Cash Value - Federal Taxes = $ 117 Million Cash Value
Now subtract State Taxes. Then subtract Local Taxes. I would buy 7 tickets, because 7 is a lucky number. |
#8
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Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
In addition to what everyone else said, the chance that you split the prize is pretty big too. This was mentioned once, but I thought I'd note that it lowers the EV immensely.
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#9
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Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
[ QUOTE ]
In addition to what everyone else said, the chance that you split the prize is pretty big too. This was mentioned once, but I thought I'd note that it lowers the EV immensely. [/ QUOTE ] This is interesting. Ive never heard of the powerball prize being split before. At least I understand now how its -ev, thanks for the help. |
#10
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Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
[ QUOTE ]
I would buy 7 tickets, because 7 is a lucky number. [/ QUOTE ] Now, there's a strategy we can all get our arms around. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] |
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