#1
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A hand from 5/10 NL 6 handed
My friend and I had a disagreement about this hand that came up playing online.
you are playing at a full 6 handed 5/10 NL. You start the hand with $1000 and both relevant players have you covered. You have the [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 in the cutoff seat. you have been playing tight so you decide to raise the pot to $35, the next player, who seems to be solid,raises to $80 on the button, the semi loose Big Blind calls and you also decide to call. The Flop is [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6. The BB bets out $200 into the $245 pot. What do you do and why? |
#2
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Re: A hand from 5/10 NL 6 handed
i think i would fold in that spot, the BB play look like a powerhand or flushdraw, and you got a man behind that also got a hand. So on a great day, i pass it. On a bad day, im all in
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#3
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Re: A hand from 5/10 NL 6 handed
It's clear to move all in.
I run some simulations with possible hands that might call the all in and found out that the only time you are a big underdog is when both opponents call and one of them has a better hand than yours on the flop (like AQ or a high pocket pair) and the other has a better flush & straight draw like A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. In all other scenarios you are either in a coin flip situation when you get only one caller or the clear favorite if both opponents call without a better flush draw. Obviously the best case scenario is when both of them fold. My simulation showed that moving all in has a +$200 EV. |
#4
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Re: A hand from 5/10 NL 6 handed
how are you coinflip with a set?
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#5
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Re: A hand from 5/10 NL 6 handed
I like calling and letting the prf in. I think you need to hit your hand here.
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#6
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Re: A hand from 5/10 NL 6 handed
[ QUOTE ]
how are you coinflip with a set? [/ QUOTE ] you are not, but against the range of hands that might call you you are either a small favourite or a small underdog, hence my definition of a coin flip. also a set is not that likely when you are holding a ten, since the button is not likely to have 66 and BB is not likely to have QQ... |
#7
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Re: A hand from 5/10 NL 6 handed
i hope you didn't fold
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#8
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Re: A hand from 5/10 NL 6 handed
The flop clobbered you, raise all in. BB mostlikely has AQ or (possibly a set if he is a good player). Tight button has AA, KK.
Hope they fold, if you get a call you have outs against a set and are a small favorite against most hands. |
#9
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Re: A hand from 5/10 NL 6 handed
i would call here hope to get third player in.
about 50/50 but u probably cant bluff them off their hands so raising will only shut out one player. |
#10
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Re: A hand from 5/10 NL 6 handed
I did some calculations and came with EV of about +$50. I'll have to relook the calculations. Maybe too conservative in assumptions (or maybe a goof).
It seems clear to me that moving all-in is +EV. The question is if it's better than calling. If it really is around +$250 EV, I don't see how calling could possibly beat that. OTOH if it's more like +$50, calling might be better. |
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