A Sticky Stud Eight or Better Situation

[nanoCRUSHER]

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Here's a nasty situation that I hate to find myself in when I play Stud 8.

Lets say on fifth street you have (K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Your opponent is showing 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] You check and your opponent bets. At this point your opponent's most likely hand is a made low, possibly with a freeroll for high.

(Lets not worry ourselves with how we got into this nasty situation by the way.)

Now, as the owner of the ugly-looking high hand, we would clearly call all the way, hoping to get half the pot back, if we were being offered pot odds of 1000 to 1. If we were being offered pot odds of 2 to 1, as in pot limit Stud/8, we'd clearly fold without much hesitation.

My question is - at what point does the pot get so big that you should call all the way with a one way hand, hoping not to get scooped? 10-1? 20-1? 100-1? Lets pretend we know nothing about the upcards and that our opponent has at least an inside straight draw to go with his low. I'm sure the exact number would vary depending on lots of different factors, but I'd like to get a general idea.

I found myself in this unpleasant situation twice after getting heads-up with a low draw last night. Both times I was getting about 10-1 from the pot, but I wasn't quite sure what to do.

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I'm no authority on stud 8/b but here's my academic try:

Assuming he has an inside straight draw and the low already made, he will hit his inside straight draw about 17% of the time (add 1% if he has the ace and can two pair higher than yours). Thus, your pot equity is about 41% (twodimes). Also, you can figure he will bet out on fifth, sixth, and seventh streets, totalling three bets you will have to put into the pot, simply to win half. For calling all the way to be correct, the pot would have to be at least 4.5 big bets (including his bet on fifth street).

If you figure your opponent to have an OESD along with a made low, your pot equity is about 35.6% (twodimes). Therefore, to call three bets, the pot would have to be at least 5.4 big bets.

*Note* simulations do not account for dead cards, but you should [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

*Note 2* if anyone finds mistakes in my logic please let me know