OT: Overcoming the Gambler's Mindset

I used to play a lot of blackjack. While I knew the odds were stacked against me, I was always very good about winning a few units and walking away. I knew I could beat the odds in the short run and would take my winnings and run. When I made the transition to poker, I found myself doing the same. Because the two games are so different, I know I need to adjust my "walk-away" threshholds. After some thinking, I had the following questions that I was hoping to get some insight on.

When you are playing sngs, 20+ a day, what do you look at when making your decision to start up another set or to call it a day? Are you looking at +/- for the session, do you shoot for a number (20 a day) and re-evaluate whether you should play more once you hit the number?

I find that I often start slow and come on strong to finish up for the day. For example, this is not uncommon for me. I started 0/6 the other day, but finished 1, 8, 2, 2, 3, 1. If you start slow and come on strong, would you continue to play because you are making good decisions and your hands appear to be holding up? Or, if you hit your 20 that day, ended strong and were up 6 buy ins, would you walk away for the night?

In terms of losing, do you set a daily loss limit? Lets say you are 8 sngs into your 20/day target and you are down 8 buy ins. Do you call it a day and have at it tomorrow, or do you power through the 20 and see where you stand when the dust clears?

Your thoughts would be appreciated.

You can win in the short run, but it's not the same as beating the odds. All sessions really add up to one big session. If you're counting cards and betting properly and not getting any heat then you might be able to "beat the odds".

In poker, as any gambling, if you have an edge, you play. If you don't have an edge, for whatever reason, tired, sick, distracted, low skill level, up against players you cannot beat, then you don't play.

Work on your decision making, your game. If you do this long enough you'll have losing streaks long enough to make you think you'll never win again.

The best way to overcome a gambler's mindset is to not have one in the first place.

EDIT: To address other portions of your post, I would set a goal for each day based on your longer term goals. As long as I were confident that I were playing well, I'd continue until I met that goal, regardless of the short term outcomes. If the day ended on a high note, I'd still quit, time to eat, socialize, take a break, get out of the house, live life.

thanks for the reply. I am happy with my game and believe it is profitable and sustainable. But I am sure we all think that about our own game.

I have read it before, to think of every day as an extension of the previous, or as one continuous session.

So I guess the answer is to just play until you hit your goal, and quit for the day, regardless if you end on a high note or with a bad beat, whether you are up or down. Set goals and stick to them, the $$ will take care of themselves.

You don't understand probability. Trials are independent. The cards on a blackjack table have absolutely no idea who you are, how long you've been there, how much you're betting, or how much you like money. If you play 5 hands of blackjack every day for 1 million days, congratualations on playing 5k hands of blackjack, but don't think you've somehow beaten the law of large numbers. ALso, if you play one hand of blackjack, you win it like 49%, so the majority of the time you lose and your expected value is negative. You're throwing away money no matter what at the blackjack table, so only play if you're actually enjoying it.

Similarly, the random number generators on online poker sites don't decide to continue a hot streak or not to continue a hot streak, they just spit out numbers at random. If you're making your decisions based on whether or not you think you're on a hot streak, or crackpot theories about having a better expected value in the short run, you're not playing optimally and probably are playing badly.

Exactly! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Dude, dont assume anything, its a mindset, not an understanding issue. I understand probability. it is a matter of preference in a sense, risk aversion, etc.

second, dont fixate on blackjack, i havent played in a long time, i was just stating an example and games i used to play. your points are already known to me, therefore not helpful. i already said BJ is a -EV game, no need to write a paragraph on it.

I understand that cards, regardless if online or in live games, are random. But for you to say there is no hot or cold steaks also implies no heaters or variance. I think I have a better understanding of this stuff than you think...maybe yours is a bit questionable.

You said this:

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I knew I could beat the odds in the short run and would take my winnings and run.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless you made a typo and meant to say "I thought I could beat the odds in the short run, and was lucky enough to come out ahead and not play anymore," you don't understand probability. Given the slant of the rest of what you said, you don't understand probability.

This is very bad for poker and I suggest that you think about it.

As for heaters and cold streaks, they certainly happen, but it's important to understand that they don't perpetuate themselves. This question:

[ QUOTE ]
would you continue to play because you are making good decisions and your hands appear to be holding up?

[/ QUOTE ]

gives me the impression that you don't understand this. Winning your last 20 coinflips doesn't change the odds of your 21st coinflip.

It's possible that you have heard these comments and know them to be true, but simply do not understand their application yet. However, you do not understand probabilty.

I'm trying to help you. I promise I'm right. Please learn not to think about gambling mathematically and not in terms of luck and streak and short-run fluctuations.

Sorry man, but Noah is right. Your statements are filled with flawed beliefs of hot streaks and bad streaks continuing.

[ QUOTE ]

I find that I often start slow and come on strong to finish up for the day. For example, this is not uncommon for me. I started 0/6 the other day, but finished 1, 8, 2, 2, 3, 1. If you start slow and come on strong, would you continue to play because you are making good decisions and your hands appear to be holding up? Or, if you hit your 20 that day, ended strong and were up 6 buy ins, would you walk away for the night?


[/ QUOTE ]

This is just a superstition in many different ways and you should see why.

Edit: If it's a mindset and not an understanding issue, it's still very harmful to your game and you should get rid of it.

To clarify, what you said about playing better after warming up is a perfectly valid thing to discuss, although you need a large sample size and accurate records (not one day's play, but 1k SnGs at least) to verify that you're not just looking at variance. If it turns out that you do play better after warming up, then you should

a) review your hand histories and see how your play changes and try to incorporate this into your "early" playing style,

b) try starting off the day at lower stakes (don't do this if you still have +ROI early in the day),

c) read these boards before playing to get yourself thinking analytically, and

d) play longer sessions (unless you get burnt out).

[ewing55]

My Oct Goals are 930 SnGs, so I need to play an average of 30 a day. I have made my schedule so I play 6 hours a day in one session, with a hour dinner break in the middle. I 4 table and can do about 6 SnGs an hour, so 6 hours times 6 SnGs means I should be playing about 36 SnGs a day, so I have some time/days to spare. If I feel I am not playing well, I'll quit early or take a day off, etc and/or adjust my dinner break up or back.

I am also trying to move up to the 33s. So I started adding in 1 33s table to my normal rotation. As long as I can keep a 15% ROI I will continue to add 33s as I can. If not I drop down and regroup. (Right now, I'm back to only 22's [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] )

Winning or losing is not important in my mind. As long as I feel I am playing well, I play. (Of course it does effect how I feel I'm playing. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] )

That's my strategy for October and I think that kind of answers what you were asking.

Now STAY OFF MY TABLES!!! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

------------------Jeff