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#1
10-04-2005, 12:27 PM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
There's no way you can give yourself 7 outs. I think its more in the 5-5.5 range. Even with very generous implied odds assumptions this is neutral at best. [/ QUOTE ] It is probably about 6. See my post above for the math. The call is correct even if you assume you do not collect any bets on the river. 
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#3
10-04-2005, 05:38 PM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
The preflop raise is fine (I wouldn't do it every or most times, but I'd do it some times depending on the lineup) if you're not going to spew postflop. You're spewing post flop though.
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#4
10-04-2005, 10:45 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
Well, you're getting 7.5-1 to call the turn, but the action seems to indicate you're against a big pair or the ace is no good. I think there is zero chance you're ahead here. If the ace was good, you have 7 outs, so let's say it's good 50-50. So that gives you 5.5 outs at 7.5-1. I lean towards folding to the turn bet, but that's me.
Jeff
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#5
10-04-2005, 11:21 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
Well, you're getting 7.5-1 to call the turn, but the action seems to indicate you're against a big pair or the ace is no good. I think there is zero chance you're ahead here. If the ace was good, you have 7 outs, so let's say it's good 50-50. So that gives you 5.5 outs at 7.5-1. I lean towards folding to the turn bet, but that's me. Jeff [/ QUOTE ] Jeff: Given the way the hand played out, I would think villain would have to have exactly AA to make this turn call -EV. The fact that I have an Ace compared to all the combos of other overpairs he can have, I think make this really close to 7 outs. I'm also surely going to get 2 more if I hit my straight making the implied odds even better.
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#6
10-04-2005, 11:22 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Well, you're getting 7.5-1 to call the turn, but the action seems to indicate you're against a big pair or the ace is no good. I think there is zero chance you're ahead here. If the ace was good, you have 7 outs, so let's say it's good 50-50. So that gives you 5.5 outs at 7.5-1. I lean towards folding to the turn bet, but that's me. Jeff [/ QUOTE ] Jeff: Given the way the hand played out, I would think villain would have to have exactly AA to make this turn call -EV. The fact that I have an Ace compared to all the combos of other overpairs he can have, I think make this really close to 7 outs. I'm also surely going to get 2 more if I hit my straight making the implied odds even better. [/ QUOTE ] Perfect. Very nice. Krishan - 89
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#7
10-04-2005, 11:33 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
I'm also surely going to get 2 more if I hit my straight [/ QUOTE ] Unless he check-calls the staight-making card. Also, are you raising an ace? Is he always paying off? Are you calling a 3 bet? Assuming you always get 2 bets on the river when you improve is really ambitious.
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#8
10-04-2005, 11:38 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm also surely going to get 2 more if I hit my straight [/ QUOTE ] Unless he check-calls the staight-making card. Also, are you raising an ace? Is he always paying off? Are you calling a 3 bet? Assuming you always get 2 bets on the river when you improve is really ambitious. [/ QUOTE ] I'm never raising a rivered ace. Villian will always pay off with an overpair. Villian will always bet with an overpair. I think these are safe assumptions. Krishan - 90
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#9
10-04-2005, 11:46 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
I'm never raising a rivered ace. Villian will always pay off with an overpair. Villian will always bet with an overpair. I think these are safe assumptions. [/ QUOTE ] Villain may often chec-call an overpair, I think that's a fair assumption. Villain may also have AK/AQ, I don't think we're giving these hands enough credit (even though the flop play makes it unlikely, it's possible). I just feel like we need a whole lot of things to go just right to make the turn a call.
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#10
10-04-2005, 11:33 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
I would think villain would have to have exactly AA to make this turn call -EV. The fact that I have an Ace compared to all the combos of other overpairs he can have, I think make this really close to 7 outs. [/ QUOTE ] Or villain has 88, 55, 44, or TT and you're drawing dead to your gutshot. Your ace outs are tainted and its not because villain has JJ-KK.
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