A22 hand

[Mendacious]

Buzz-- AA2J rainbow is behind EVERY SINGLE Ace and two low cards hands. ALL of them. This is not monster under the bed.

If your opponent has Ace, which you admit will happen a large percentage of the time, I believe it is statistically MOST likely that he has at least 2 other low cards with it.

If your opponent holds and Ace, there are 25 more low cards in the deck, and only 19 remaining hi cards. Clearly it is more probable that of his other 3 cards, it is more likely that 2 or more are low than 2 or more are hi. I'd say it is about 58/42 if the Ace is in someone's hand. then you are behind, and in a substantial number of those cases it approaches 60/40 that you are behind.

With 3 callers in the hand I think there is a GREAT chance that the Ace is in one of their hands, and almost a 58/42 chance that if it is you are quite a bit behind. These odds get rapidly worse if the Ace is calling your bets or firing back.

Bottom line, its not that valuable a hand no matter how nice it looks.

Now if the other low draws keep pumping money into the pot, you are going to be +EV, in my experience, and I HAVE had this scenario more than a few times in PL, you wind up heads up against the other Ace and a low draw, and you are in a losing situation.

two dimes A34K vs AA2J hand

[Chamonyx]

I think you mean A22J not AA2J

[Mendacious]

yes

[Buzz]

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AA2J rainbow is behind EVERY SINGLE Ace and two low cards hands. ALL of them.

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Mendacious - I don’t think that’s quite true. I ran several hands against Hero’s hand on twodimes.net, one of which was
A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Here is the complete result as copied from the twodimes.net “simulation,” but using dashes to separate into columns:

pokenum -o8 ac 2s 2h jd - ad 4s 6h 6c -- as ah 2d
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing As 2d Ah
cards-----scoop--HIwin--HIlos--HItie--LOwin--LOlos--LOtie--EV
2sAcJd2h----210----650----170-----0-----0-----0-----0-----0.524
4s6cAd6h----170----170----650-----0---520-----0-----0-----0.476

As you can see, the A446 hand, a hand with two different ranks of low cards, is an under-dog to the A22J hand after a flop of AA2. (Suits don’t matter, assuming a straight flush is not possible).

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This is not monster under the bed.

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Agreed. Ad2d3h4h after a flop of AsAh2h when you hold Ac2c2sJs is the monster.
pokenum -o8 ac 2c 2s js - ad 2d 3h 4h -- as ah 2h
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing As Ah 2h
cards-----scoop--HIwin--HIlos--HItie--LOwin--LOlos--LOtie--EV
Js2sAc2c-----69----114----241---465------0-----0-----0-----0.290
Ad2d4h3h---241----241----114---465---520-----0-----0-----0.710

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If your opponent has Ace, which you admit will happen a large percentage of the time, ........

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Yes. I’ll admit your opponent has an ace a large percentage of the time. My current thinking is roughly 30/45 or about two thirds of the time in a ten handed game when you hold A22J, the flop is AA2, and five of your opponents in a ten handed game see the flop with you.

In other words, I agree that 20/45 is too low but I still think 36/45 is too high. 30/45 seems more reasonable, because you’re right that people do tend to see the flop when they are dealt hands with aces, but some hands with aces are not very playable in limit Omaha-8. I don’t know, but the same would seem to be true in pot limit - true? (or is everything with an ace, aside from trips, playable)? I mean, do you play something like A-6-8-9-rainbow?

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....... I believe it is statistically MOST likely that he has at least 2 other low cards with it.

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Well... yes. But not by much. When you hold A22J and the flop is AA2, the probability an opponent with the missing ace has a hand with at least two distinct ranks of low cards, other than aces or deuces is, I think, 6560/12341 = 53.2%.

Then if you multiply that probability by the probability an opponent was dealt and played a hand with an ace, I think you’re in the neighborhood of 2/5. So... Very interesting... Roughly two times out of five, when you flop aces full of deuces with no shot at low in a full, ten handed game, you’ll be up against an opponent with a hand that’s probably better than yours. Hmm... I would not have thought, off-hand, you’d be the under-dog quite that often when you flop aces full of deuces.

But even so, you’re still the favorite. Three times out of five you won't be up against such a hand. And the two times out of five you are up against such a hand, you're still favored by about three to one to win for high.

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If your opponent holds and Ace, there are 25 more low cards in the deck, and only 19 remaining hi cards. Clearly it is more probable that of his other 3 cards, it is more likely that 2 or more are low than 2 or more are hi. I'd say it is about 58/42 if the Ace is in someone's hand. then you are behind, and in a substantial number of those cases it approaches 60/40 that you are behind.

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I think the probability of encountering an opponent with an ace plus at least two different ranks of low cards is in the neighborhood of about 0.4. (Actually, I think that's slightly on the high side for my normal limit games).

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With 3 callers in the hand I think there is a GREAT chance that the Ace is in one of their hands, and almost a 58/42 chance that if it is you are quite a bit behind.

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Only three see the flop with you? My figuring above was for five seeing the flop with you. Five callers have a total of 20 cards. Three callers have a total of 12 cards. With only three callers it’s even less likely that you’re up against an opponent with an ace and at least two low ranks. With nine original opponents, it’s somewhere between 12/45 and 36/45 that one of the three callers has a hand with the ace. I used 30/45 for five opponents.... Well.... All right, let’s give you the benefit of the doubt and still use 30/45 for three opponents. In that case, I think it’s about 3 to 2 that you are ahead.

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These odds get rapidly worse if the Ace is calling your bets or firing back.

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That makes a lot of sense to me in a pot limit game. I agree that if you bet the pot after a flop of AA2n where four of you saw the flop, it looks a lot like anyone who calls your bet has the missing ace. And if someone does have the missing ace, it’s slightly more likely than not (53:47) the missing ace is in a hand having at least two different ranks of low cards. Thus is looks very scary if someone calls your pot sized bet - and even scarier if you get raised.

You could get raised in a limit game too, but there it wouldn’t be scary. (You just call the raise and probably check/call the rest of the way).

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Bottom line, its not that valuable a hand no matter how nice it looks.

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I think A22J after a flop of AA2 is the favorite.

I’d rather have A234, or A34K (or some others after this flop). But without knowing you’re up against one of these, A22J is favored.

Bottom line: It’s most likely you are not up against a better hand.

Somewhere in the neighborhood of two times out of five you probably will be up against a better hand.

But the other three times out of five you’ll be the favorite.

In a pot limit game, if I bet the pot and got raised, I’d think it very well might be one of those times when somebody held a better hand. But even so, all is not lost; you’re still much the favorite for high. Looks mainly like you’re headed for a split pot, and with a big raise on top of your own bet, there won’t be many customers. Not good, but I think you call the raise.

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Now if the other low draws keep pumping money into the pot, you are going to be +EV,

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Yes. That’s the most likely scenario in a limit game.

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in my experience, and I HAVE had this scenario more than a few times in PL, you wind up heads up against the other Ace and a low draw, and you are in a losing situation.

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Yes. I think maybe that happens about two times out of five. Two out of five is often enough so that it’s not uncommon. That’s about the same as getting quartered or sixthed for low with ace-deuce-X-Y in a full limit game. When it happens a few times in a row, as it sometimes does, it can seem more likely than not (if you don’t know better).

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Mendacious]

Ok-- I agree with this virtually all of this last analysis-- where probability is concerned. The problem I have is that in PL if you are up against quality opponents, you are seldom going to come out way ahead on this hand, especially if you wind up heads up, and many times you will be stuck with terrible decisions about whether or not to continue knowing that you may get stacked. Once the turn comes, you have an inherently weak hand and are now on defense if any move is made by any player.

[Buzz]

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Once the turn comes, you have an inherently weak hand and are now on defense if any move is made by any player.

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Mendacious - Makes perfect sense to me, especially for pot-limit. Even in a limit game I think you switch to a check/call defense if you get raised after you bet the turn (assuming the turn is not an ace, deuce, or jack).

In a limit game, I'm betting this flop and even if that bet geets raised, I'm also betting the turn, regardless of whether the turn is a low card or not.

I can see how your thinking for a pot limit game would be very different than mine for a limit game.

Thanks for the input.

Buzz