AK river bluff

1/2 limit hold'em, ten handed

Villains are unknowns, although the hand before this I reraised villain preflop as well, then raised him when he led into me on the flop. He folded, but he might think I'm a bit on the aggresive side, raising him two hands in a row.

Hero is CO+1 dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Preflop

UTG+1 raises, middle player calls, Hero 3 bets, Blinds fold, original raiser and middle player call

Flop
2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Checked to hero who bets, both players call

Turn
7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Checked to hero who bets, both call

River
2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Checked to hero again, what's my play?

I'm thinking the standard move here is to check and hope both villains are on busted draws. It's pretty much impossible for me to get called by a weaker hand here if I bet, so any bet on the end is definately not for value. In the actual hand however I bet, and I don't think it was a mistake.

Now we all know that the primary mistake players at this level make is playing too loose. Their loose calls are why we make money. While I think most villains at this level are too loose preflop and on the flop, I think that most players at this level are too tight on the river, particularly in big pots. In a situation like this I think I can make someone lay down a hand like mid/bottom pair, or a small pocket pair with a river bet. Often villains call down with these hands not to get them shown down, but to improve them by spiking a kicker, hitting trips etc. If they don't improve by the river, they might fold. The fact that there are ten big bets in this pots makes a river bluff even more tempting, because I only have to make someone fold a better hand a small percentage of the time to make this play +EV. Thoughts?

[trainslayer]

I think you have to check. The chances of folding TWO villians is a small percentage of the time.

and, The fact that there are ten big bets in this pots makes the likely hood of at least one caller even greater.

edit: if'n ya haven't already ya need to read this.

[Jefzter]

I would do a continuation bet here. You can hopefully chase off anyone who has paired their 3 or 7. If they had a 2 or a 10 I would assume that they would have come out betting.

[ThaHero]

Against two opponents, I check. Against one, I think I'm inclined to bet if he's capable of folding or calling with a weaker Ace.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to check. The chances of folding TWO villians is a small percentage of the time.

and, The fact that there are ten big bets in this pots makes the likely hood of at least one caller even greater.

edit: if'n ya haven't already ya need to read this.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may be right, however I think you're overestimating the average villains awareness of pot size when it comes to making river decisions. It seems like the typical villain thinking is "I'm probably beat, I fold", rather than "I'm probably beat, however there is x dollars in the pot, and I'm getting x:1 on my call, so I only need to be good x% of the time for this call to be profitable."

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Against two opponents, I check. Against one, I think I'm inclined to bet if he's capable of folding or calling with a weaker Ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

I basically NEVER bet this river with AK UI HU. Knowing that he can call with a weaker ace does NOT justify betting. Also, most villains will not fold their pair hands on the river if they call on the turn.

[Yerma]

I think that if someone has a pair, you are getting called >95% of the time here.

[TomBrooks]

Bluff bet the diamond scare card. It's likely your only chance to win the pot so it's worth one more bet to try. It might be a long shot because that one Villian might be in the mood to look you up after the last hand as you indicate, and you have another guy in there also.

PS: I would have checked through the turn. That would have cost you one less bet and then the pot would not be worth bluffing at on the river anyway.

[Piiop]

Check.

[ QUOTE ]
It's pretty much impossible for me to get called by a weaker hand here if I bet, so any bet on the end is definately not for value. In the actual hand however I bet, and I don't think it was a mistake.


[/ QUOTE ]

If the first and second sentences are true, then it was a mistake.

If someone got to the river with a pair, they're not folding it now. If you think the villains are capable of either calling with a worse A or folding another AK, then a bet has value. Since they are unknowns and you are against 2 players, I would check.

[kapw7]

Check this. The only things that you can achieve by betting is A. getting called by a trash pair B. Getting C-Red by someone making trips or a flush. C. Make worse hands to fold.

Against only 1 player I would bet this if he was TAG or very loose passive (for value).