Winning Concepts in SnGs

[Shilly]

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(2) Allin Encounters on the "bubble" are very costly!
*Intuition - With 4 players and a decent stack you should on average earn a quarter of the prize pool (and more)! If you call an allin with AJ thinking you'll win 60% of the time, you're actually losing money! 60% of the time you win less than half the prize pool. Say you average 4 buyins. 40% of the time you get nothing. .6*.4=2.4 buyins which is a very generous estimate.

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I think this is generally wrong when you take it out of context.