AA: SSHE pg. 163

Aviston · #1 09-20-2005, 07:40 PM

Well, I posted my hand-being-best-musings as a side note. What I'm really asking here is if it is better to cap this flop for value, or if there is more value in waiting to raise the turn to protect my hand.

TheHip41 · #2 09-20-2005, 07:43 PM

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Well, I posted my hand-being-best-musings as a side note. What I'm really asking here is if it is better to cap this flop for value, or if there is more value in waiting to raise the turn to protect my hand.

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You can't protect your hand from much at this point. MP guy cold calling 3 isn't going to fold to a bet and a raise, everyone else is putting money in this pot freely.

I'd cap to try and take control of the hand. If I cap the flop and the turn is a brick, and it's bet and raised to me, I can safely fold then. Also, if a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hits the turn, do you really want to raise at that point?

Aviston · #3 09-20-2005, 07:48 PM

Well, I was more of thinking that if a brick hit then I'd raise the turn. It's not about trying to get players to fold, it's about giving them incorrect odds on their call. By waiting until the turn I can give many draws (including gutshots, etc) incorrect odds. Their mistakes are +EV for me.

TheHip41 · #4 09-20-2005, 07:59 PM

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Well, I was more of thinking that if a brick hit then I'd raise the turn. It's not about trying to get players to fold, it's about giving them incorrect odds on their call. By waiting until the turn I can give many draws (including gutshots, etc) incorrect odds. Their mistakes are +EV for me.

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I don't think even this will happen. When you call 2 more, and the BB calls 2 more, this is a 32SB pot.

16BB to the turn. Say it goes bet, you raise,

Now there's 19BB, ppl have to call 2BB. 9.5-1

I just don't think you can protect this hand anymore, it's all about value.

#5 09-20-2005, 11:20 PM

I have also read this section of SSHE very carefully. I think you are right, that you cannot protect your hand on the flop, but with a check raise on the turn. But are the players with a gutshot really wrong to call to 1/9.5 or will they calculate their implied odds high enough to call?

Aviston · #6 09-21-2005, 12:01 AM

As I stated earlier, I really don't think I have a chance to fold anyone out of this hand. However, giving them incorrect immediate pot odds seems better than giving them odds to call with pretty much anything. I'm really unsure as to whether giving up a value cap on the flop is worth it in this situation.

TheHip41 · #7 09-21-2005, 02:12 AM

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As I stated earlier, I really don't think I have a chance to fold anyone out of this hand. However, giving them incorrect immediate pot odds seems better than giving them odds to call with pretty much anything. I'm really unsure as to whether giving up a value cap on the flop is worth it in this situation.

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If they are going to call with a gutshot getting 10.5-1, they will call getting 9.5-1. Do you know why?

Because they will look at the pot that says $14999999 and say, all I need is a X and I win all that. They will call.

That being said, I'd just go ahead and cap, and get as much as you can now. The turn might get bet and raised without your help anyway.

#8 09-21-2005, 03:16 AM

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As I stated earlier, I really don't think I have a chance to fold anyone out of this hand. However, giving them incorrect immediate pot odds seems better than giving them odds to call with pretty much anything. I'm really unsure as to whether giving up a value cap on the flop is worth it in this situation.

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I think protecting your hand can be a consideration, but should not always be the overriding one. As Ed Miller has posted, waiting for the turn accomplishes more than just giving people incorrect odds to fold. It builds a bigger pot from players that are going to the river, and it can sometimes get someone to FOLD incorrectly b/c they think you have a monster hand like a set and will incorrectly fold one pair hands that have odds to continue.

I don't think we should be raising the turn here for several reasons. 1) Due to the heavy flop action we are quite possibly behind. By capping the flop we more clearly define our hand and it makes the turn and river easier to play. I don't really want to put two bets in on the turn if I am drawing dead. 2) You have to think what type of hands you are giving incorrect odds to. UTG does not have an inside str8 draw based on the action. So he's either ahead of you or drawing slim as it is. Maybe BB does, but taht is doubtful and I'm not going to go out of my way to give him incorrect odds on the off chance he does.

Overall, it all comes down to value. By offering someone incorrect odds to call, you either gain a fraction of the pot when they fold, or a fraction of their bet if they call. So I think obsessing about knocking out inside draw alone is pretty stupid. We're talking about fractions of a BB probably. So I think the combination of value from a flop raise if we're ahead, along with saving us bets as it makes the hand easier to play on the turn and river make this a flop raise.

For big overpair hands like KK,waiting for the turn to raise I think in general is good for a combination of reasons that reasons Ed Miller mentioned that I noted above. For hands like TT or JJ, I think waiting for the turn can be much more important as they are more vulerable to weak draws.