Is there anybody going to listen to my story

1800GAMBLER · #1 09-20-2005, 09:12 AM

.. all about the girl who came to stay.

These are always fun. Opponent is 25/10/2

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (8 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 caps, MP2 folds, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (11.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, CO calls, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, CO calls, Hero caps, MP1 calls, CO calls.

River: (23.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, CO folds, Hero ? 

Yes, i have quads. Yes, i am considering not raising. Please don't just reply saying you have quads you have to 3 bet or 'he could be bluffing! raise!', if you think i should 3 bet include what you think his hand range is.

Guido · #2 09-20-2005, 09:19 AM

He either has 44 or 55 and maybe 54s. In the heat of the battle I would probably 3-bet. I'm sorry that I couldn't be of any more help.

Thanks,

Guido

1800GAMBLER · #3 09-20-2005, 09:23 AM

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He either has 44 or 55 and maybe 54s. In the heat of the battle I would probably 3-bet. I'm sorry that I couldn't be of any more help.

Thanks,

Guido

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My 3 bet was a very in the heat of the battle. 45s def. needs to be extremely discounted that this player played it and then went so many bets on the turn with it. 44 needs to be discounted because it has to fear any 5 on the river and could have overcalled. So really it's 44 vs 55, i don't think 44 raises the river much, lets say half the time so that's 1.5 combos vs 1, and i go 2 bets vs quads, so it's a call; i don't think i can justify i 3 bet with the logic 'well he may be clowning around with a straight or even an overpair a very small percentage' since i think that percentage is 0. This thread seems pretty pointless other than it's a fun hand but i really need to work on not rushing my decisions and not thinking them through completely.

Luke · #4 09-20-2005, 09:36 AM

Let's say his hand range is 55, 44, 54s and A3s. There is only combo of 54s left (hearts), and there's a strong chance he wouldn't play that from his position and also may not have played it so strong on the turn so let's simply ignore that hand.

A3s is pretty unlikely given his turn and continued river action so we'll give that a zero probability as well.

As for 55 and 44, the hand combinations suggest it's 3:1 in favor of 44 but he *might* have slowed up on the turn with it (fearing quads or set over set).

However, I don't think he slows down often enough to reduce it to 1:1 and I also think if hero 3-bets, 2 more bets are going in whether he holds 55 or 44 - so it's not like you gain one when ahead, lose two bets when behind.

Given these assumptions, I like a 3-bet.

Luke

rigoletto · #5 09-20-2005, 09:47 AM

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[ QUOTE ]
He either has 44 or 55 and maybe 54s. In the heat of the battle I would probably 3-bet. I'm sorry that I couldn't be of any more help.

Thanks,

Guido

[/ QUOTE ]

My 3 bet was a very in the heat of the battle. 45s def. needs to be extremely discounted that this player played it and then went so many bets on the turn with it. 44 needs to be discounted because it has to fear any 5 on the river and could have overcalled. So really it's 44 vs 55, i don't think 44 raises the river much, lets say half the time so that's 1.5 combos vs 1, and i go 2 bets vs quads, so it's a call; i don't think i can justify i 3 bet with the logic 'well he may be clowning around with a straight or even an overpair a very small percentage' since i think that percentage is 0. This thread seems pretty pointless other than it's a fun hand but i really need to work on not rushing my decisions and not thinking them through completely.

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I think your theory discounts that a lot of players would put you on a medium pair (66-TT) or A3 until you cap the turn and put you on something like 23s, A2 and most likely 44 after the cap. Which means that 45s, 56s and A5s are all possible.

1800GAMBLER · #6 09-20-2005, 09:48 AM

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He either has 44 or 55 and maybe 54s. In the heat of the battle I would probably 3-bet. I'm sorry that I couldn't be of any more help.

Thanks,

Guido

[/ QUOTE ]

My 3 bet was a very in the heat of the battle. 45s def. needs to be extremely discounted that this player played it and then went so many bets on the turn with it. 44 needs to be discounted because it has to fear any 5 on the river and could have overcalled. So really it's 44 vs 55, i don't think 44 raises the river much, lets say half the time so that's 1.5 combos vs 1, and i go 2 bets vs quads, so it's a call; i don't think i can justify i 3 bet with the logic 'well he may be clowning around with a straight or even an overpair a very small percentage' since i think that percentage is 0. This thread seems pretty pointless other than it's a fun hand but i really need to work on not rushing my decisions and not thinking them through completely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your theory discounts that a lot of players would put you on a medium pair (66-TT) or A3 until you cap the turn and put you on something like 23s, A2 and most likely 44 after the cap. Which means that 45s, 56s and A5s are all possible.

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Playing 25% of hands includes 45s 56s EP?

1800GAMBLER · #7 09-20-2005, 09:50 AM

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2 more bets are going in whether he holds 55 or 44

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You think he caps 44 on a 25425 board?

rigoletto · #8 09-20-2005, 09:52 AM

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Apart from preflop.

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a 25/10 player will limp a lot of hands after 1 limper.

1800GAMBLER · #9 09-20-2005, 09:54 AM

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Apart from preflop.

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a 25/10 player will limp a lot of hands after 1 limper.

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If by a lot you mean roughly the top 20% of hands, i agree.

rigoletto · #10 09-20-2005, 09:54 AM

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2 more bets are going in whether he holds 55 or 44

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You think he caps 44 on a 25425 board?

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If he puts you on a 2!